Vantagepoint AI: Nov 2025 Market Outlook & Forex Trading

Welcome to this detailed Artificial Intelligence Outlook for Forex and broader financial market trading, presented by Vantagepoint AI. This report offers an in-depth analysis of various assets for the week commencing November 3, 2025, leveraging advanced AI-powered indicators to forecast market movements and identify critical trading levels.

U.S. Dollar Index: A Resilient Greenback

The U.S. Dollar Index (UUP / USDU) presents a nuanced but generally bullish outlook. Analysis of the USDU reveals a recent medium-term MA diff cross indicating an upward trajectory, supported by the predicted RSI maintaining levels above 50. The Neural Index strength further corroborates this bullish sentiment, with the medium-term predicted difference surpassing its long-term counterpart. This outlook is reinforced by the asset remaining above its quarterly opening price and specifically, the Tross long at 26.72.

Conversely, the UUP, while exhibiting slightly different signals, also demonstrates a recovery. Despite several false breaks below the 40 level on the predicted RSI, it is now regaining strength. The bullish position of the medium-term crossover relative to the long-term trend remains intact. Although the dollar has traded below its calendar yearly opening price for much of the year, recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, questioning the market's previous assumptions of multiple rate cuts, provides fundamental support. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen at the beginning of the month, a pattern that may amplify its current technical strength, though rapid fundamental shifts warrant caution.

Equity Markets: Corrective Pressures Emerge

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index is showing signs of a potential corrective downturn. An MA diff cross to the downside suggests an expected pullback towards the Tross long, currently at 6,7466. For a more significant trend reversal, the index would need to breach both the Tross long and the crucial quarterly opening price at 6,6317. That's a very, very important level for stock traders. This corrective move reflects the market's digestion of the Federal Reserve's stance, which has challenged prior expectations of aggressive rate cuts.

DAX (Global X & Futures)

European equity markets, particularly the DAX, appear to face even more substantial bearish pressures. The Global X DAX futures are currently trading below both their calendar monthly and quarterly opening prices, as well as the Tross long. Key resistance levels to monitor are 44.72 and the quarterly opening at 44.91, which must be convincingly surpassed for any bullish reversal. While the continuous contracts for DAX futures show the index still above its quarterly opening price (24,019) and Tcross long (24,277), indicating a potential lag or divergence, both the Global X and futures contracts exhibit bearish momentum, pointing towards a challenging week for European equities.

Volatility Index ($VIX)

The Volatility Index ($VIX) is a critical gauge for assessing market sentiment and potential equity movements. A recent MA diff cross suggests a corrective upward move towards its Tcross long at 33.04. For global indices like the DAX and S&P 500 to decline further, the VIX must decisively break and hold above this 33.04 level. While it has penetrated the quarterly opening price of 32.48, the predicted RSI not sustaining above 60 indicates that strong bullish confirmation for the VIX is still lacking. Traders should closely monitor the 33.04 level; a sustained break above it would confirm continued downside for global indices, while a failure to hold could signal a reversal higher for equities. The VIX has made a corrective move from a newly formed verified support low at 30.96 and is currently contending with the Tross long, making 33.04 a pivotal point.

Commodities: Oil and Bitcoin Dynamics

U.S. Oil ($USO)

Oil prices continue to exhibit a bearish bias despite recent retracements towards quarterly and monthly opening levels. The asset remains negative on the year, trading below its yearly opening price of 76.84 and its combined monthly and quarterly opening price of 72.65. The MA diff cross indicates a weakening medium-term strength against the long-term, suggesting that the current move higher is corrective. A sustained break above 72.65 is necessary to validate a bullish reversal, but current low demand implies ongoing struggle for oil prices, with natural gas contracts potentially holding a slight advantage as we move further into November.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin presents a mixed signal, grappling with recent fundamental headwinds, particularly from the Federal Reserve's stance. While the predicted RSI holds above 50 and the Neural Index points higher, an MA diff cross raises concerns about a potentially false break higher, suggesting the current upward movement might be corrective. The yearly opening price at 93,804 serves as a critical support. The Tcross long at 115,1980 is a key resistance level that Bitcoin needs to surpass quickly by the latter part of the week to avoid a deeper corrective move. Despite the mixed indicators, remaining above 93,804 keeps Bitcoin positive on the year, though its trajectory remains susceptible to ongoing fundamental headlines and market sentiment.

Forex Major Pairs: Navigating Dollar Strength and Cross-Currency Dynamics

Euro versus U.S. Dollar ($EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD pair, typically inversely correlated with dollar strength, appears poised for a significant move to the downside in the coming week. Despite market chop influenced by diverging Fed opinions and trade dynamics, softer Eurozone inflation data and a potential desire for a weaker euro to boost tourism contribute to this outlook. Key levels to watch include the monthly opening price at 1.1734, which is also the quarterly opening price. The Tross long at 1.1623 is a critical area, with verified support zones around 1.1543. Only a sustained break of these zones would lead to a much deeper move towards the 1.13 area, with 1.0357 before year-end seeming unlikely.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc ($USD/CHF)

The USD/CHF pair reinforces the narrative of dollar strength. For the past two to three months, the pair has traded sideways within a long-term channel, with recent lows at 0.7830 and highs near 0.8171. Current signals indicate a bullish move back towards the most recent highs around the 0.8132 area. The next significant move in the dollar will likely occur when this long-term channel is decisively broken, but for the upcoming week, Vantagepoint's signals remain bullish for the pair.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar ($GBP/USD)

The GBP/USD pair shows potential for recovery against the dollar, possibly outperforming the euro. An MA diff cross is forming, with the pink zero-lag line crossing the blue line to the upside, signaling a potential retracement or corrective move higher. This contrasts with the euro, which lacks a similar signal, hinting at a stronger pound versus the euro next week. Traders should monitor the predicted low for Monday at 1.3106 for a potential Monday-Tuesday reversal, aiming for a corrective move towards the Tcross long at 1.3317. The EUR/GBP cross pair could offer interesting side-trade opportunities given the divergent signals.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen ($USD/JPY)

The carry trade in USD/JPY appears to be reactivated, supported by the Federal Reserve's unwavering stance on interest rates, contrary to expectations for cuts. This, combined with potential US-China trade deals, contributes to a weaker yen. While an MA diff cross to the downside exists, as long as the pair remains above the Tross long at 151.95, this is considered a corrective move lower. A potential scenario for Monday is a sharp dip, followed by a recovery for the rest of the week, reflecting the pair's notorious Monday-Tuesday reversal pattern. Traders are unlikely to quickly exit dollar longs given the current environment.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar ($USD/CAD)

The USD/CAD pair is poised for further upside, primarily due to the Bank of Canada's pessimistic economic forecast and a recent rate cut. The head of the Bank of Canada's dire assessment suggests significant headwinds for the Canadian economy, possibly exacerbated by domestic political uncertainties regarding the federal budget. Technical indicators from Vantage Point, including the neural index, neural index strength, and an MA diff cross, all signal bullish momentum for USD/CAD. A break above the 60 level on the predicted RSI could trigger a breakout. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.3920 would be required to reverse this bullish outlook. The Canadian dollar faces numerous fundamental and technical challenges; therefore, buying CAD is currently not recommended. Long positions on USD/CAD are clearly favored, and selling CAD against other major currencies (NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD) is also indicated.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($AUD/USD)

The AUD/USD has recently faced headwinds due to renewed dollar strength, despite starting the week strongly. The pair has found support at the Tross long of 0.6543, which acts as a critical line in the sand. While indicators suggest a potential bearish turn with an MA diff cross forming, the AUD remains positive on the year, up 5.67% against the dollar from its yearly opening price of 0.6189. This performance highlights the Aussie's underlying resilience. A potential US-China trade deal could further benefit AUD/USD. While a short-term move lower towards 0.6444 is possible next week, a long-term bearish play is not anticipated.

New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($NZD/USD)

Similar to AUD/USD, the NZD/USD is also experiencing downward pressure. Key resistance points are the quarterly opening price at 0.5794 and the Tross long at 0.5756. While a buy stop order above 0.5794 could be considered for a market turnaround, current signals, including an MA diff cross and the Kiwi trading below its Tross long, indicate building downside momentum. Between the AUD and NZD, the Australian dollar currently maintains a stronger position. The coming week is expected to be volatile but will offer opportunities for traders who understand these critical market levels, particularly by leveraging predictive analytics.