Bitcoin's Road to $1M: OG Sellers Recede, Market Shifts

In a recent video address on November 11, Dave Weisberger, the accomplished former chairman and co-founder of CoinRoutes and current president of BetterTrade.digital, articulated a compelling long-term bullish perspective for Bitcoin. His analysis critically examines the prevailing "morose" market sentiment and technical calls for downside, contending that these interpretations overlook profound structural shifts occurring across both fundamental principles and market microstructure.

Weisberger meticulously structured his discourse into two primary segments: an exploration of the underlying motivations driving Bitcoin acquisition and an in-depth assessment of the contemporary market structure. He firmly posits that the overarching thesis advocating for seven-figure Bitcoin pricing remains robust and undiminished, even in the absence of an immediate, discernible catalyst.

The Foundational Case for Bitcoin's Seven-Figure Valuation

From a fundamental standpoint, Weisberger draws an insightful and direct comparison between Bitcoin and gold, particularly focusing on gold's historical monetary role and its considerable market capitalization. He references an estimated "around $28 trillion" for gold's above-ground market value, complemented by "about $7 trillion in known reserves below ground." Through this lens, he argues that approximately 80% of gold's inherent value is attributable to its monetary function rather than its industrial utility. This estimation is further substantiated by employing the platinum–gold price relationship as an illustrative proxy.

Gold Analogy and Monetary Superiority

"Gold today trades at about two and a half times platinum, which for most of my life was about double the price of gold," Weisberger explains. He emphasizes that platinum, despite being "30 times rarer and more valued by women in jewelry," trades at a lower multiple to gold. Through this relative valuation, he estimates gold's "monetary value fully diluted around $28 trillion." This staggering figure is then juxtaposed against Bitcoin's current "fully diluted market cap […] just over $2 trillion at today’s prices," highlighting a significant disparity.

Weisberger asserts that if Bitcoin achieves parity with, or even surpasses, gold in its monetary characteristics, this considerable valuation gap inherently implies transformative upside potential. He states emphatically, "It could rise to equal gold. Except it’s better than gold on monetary characteristics." He meticulously enumerates Bitcoin's distinct advantages: its native digital finality, unparalleled resistance to counterfeiting, inherent divisibility, transparent ledger, and a rigorously programmatic supply schedule. These attributes, he contends, not only provide superior monetary features but also effectively circumvent the traditional frictions associated with gold custody, assaying, and physical transport.

Network Adoption and Asymmetry in Debasement Regimes

Even within a conservative scenario where fiat currencies manage to "hold their value," Weisberger suggests that mere network adoption could justify a multi-fold repricing of Bitcoin. The asymmetry becomes even more pronounced and compelling in a debasement regime. He projects, "As the Bitcoin network grows and it gains acceptance it’ll likely rise by 10 times this or more." Reinforcing his conviction via X (formerly Twitter), he reiterated that the "Fundamental case" for Bitcoin stands at $1 million in today's purchasing power.

Recalling the "fastest horse" analogy popularized during the early COVID-era liquidity surge, Weisberger references Paul Tudor Jones's thesis from "May of 2020." He acknowledges a minor misstatement regarding the initial timing but reminds viewers that the price remained stagnant for several months before a significant stepwise acceleration from October onwards, culminating in a subsequent euphoric rally. The pertinent lesson, in his estimation, is that overall market sentiment often lags behind fundamental shifts until investor positioning recalibrates and liquidity leadership rotates back towards Bitcoin. He sagely notes, "History doesn’t always repeat, but it can sometimes rhyme."

Evolving Market Dynamics and Microstructure

In his examination of market structure, Weisberger directly challenges the predictive utility of the traditional four-year halving cycle. Historically, this cyclical behavior followed a pattern: a halving event, followed by a six-month period of miner-incentive uncertainty, then a rally transitioning from relief to euphoria, which subsequently bled into altcoin rotations before a broader market drawdown.

Dispelling the Halving Cycle Myth

He argues that this historical dynamic is progressively losing its relevance because current supply changes are now "irrelevant relative to the amount of demand that’s going on." Concurrently, network security trends convey a vastly different narrative: "If you look at the Bitcoin hash rate chart, it’s increasing at a geometric pace." The primary drivers of price action, as he perceives them, are the intricate interplay between legacy supply and burgeoning institutional demand. He encapsulates this dynamic by stating, "It’s basically the OG sellers who are selling over 100,000 [BTC] and the new buyers, whether they’re in ETFs or in MicroStrategy, etc."

The Role of Early Adopters and Institutional Inflows

These early holders, in Weisberger's nuanced interpretation, are not capitulating but rather engaging in a rational process of diversifying life-changing gains. This implies a finite overhang of selling pressure: "Entrepreneurs don’t generally sell everything […] they sell some at a level to get where they need to be and then […] sell at later prices." This perspective offers a crucial distinction from distressed selling, suggesting a more orderly and manageable supply absorption.

Furthermore, Weisberger highlights the remarkable patience exhibited by spot ETF investors, despite recent market volatility. "Even after all of the carnage of the last few weeks since October 10th, less than 2% of the Bitcoin ETFs have outflown," he observes. He characterizes this cohort as long-horizon allocators "looking for a 10x gain," not individuals trading around minor, single-digit drawdowns. This steadfastness underscores a growing maturity and institutional conviction within the Bitcoin market.

Resilience Amidst Volatility and Future Catalysts

Weisberger draws a critical distinction between the October deleveraging event, where "$20 billion was liquidated […] but only five billion of the liquidation was in Bitcoin," and the devastating insolvency cascade of 2022. He stresses that "This cycle doesn’t have a Celsius […] doesn’t have an FTX. The impact of the liquidations is not going to be to cause an insolvency event which causes forced sales."

Differentiated Market Responses

In the absence of a pervasive credit-driven unwind, he argues that technical analogies drawn to 2022 are fundamentally misplaced. "If there’s no forced sales, why do we expect a sale on the magnitude that happened in 2022 […]? They’re trying to impute something without taking into account the actual circumstance." This analytical clarity suggests a more resilient market structure capable of absorbing shocks without triggering systemic collapses.

The Anticipation of New Catalysts

In Weisberger's view, renewed price leadership will materialize through a combination of "liquidity and slow grinding growth," as "hot money" recovers from leverage-driven losses. He anticipates that the selling pressure from "OG sellers" will "abate" as their partial profit-taking objectives are met, thereby setting the stage for the next euphoric leg once a new catalyst invariably emerges.

While Weisberger refrains from predicting the exact spark that will ignite this next phase—"I’m not a Nostradamus"—he thoughtfully lists plausible vectors consistent with prior cycles. These include "sovereign accumulation," or Bitcoin's expanded utility as collateral. He emphasizes, "It doesn’t really matter what the catalyst is," underscoring the inevitability of such an event given Bitcoin's fundamental strengths and evolving market dynamics.

The paramount risk for prospective sellers, he warns, is the potential for being out of the market during a pivotal inflection point. "Unless you are very nimble, very quick, have no tax consequences, and aren’t out of the market or on vacation in the two or three days when euphoria first starts, then I would be very, very reticent to sell here."

He concludes with a prudent caution, acknowledging the market's inherent capacity to frustrate both bullish and bearish camps. "Maybe euphoria will happen after it continues to drag on and fall for another few months, but at some point it will happen," he states. Disclosing his personal positioning—"I have not sold any sats, nor do I intend to"—he reiterates the discipline required in a volatile market. "Stay safe out there. This market does look interesting and is going to likely stay that way for a while." At press time, BTC was trading at $104,954, reinforcing the ongoing journey of this transformative asset.