Bitcoin to $1M: OG Sellers Fading, Weisberger's Bull Case

Former CoinRoutes chairman and co-founder, now President of BetterTrade.digital, Dave Weisberger, recently articulated a robust long-term bull case for Bitcoin (BTC), challenging prevailing "morose" market sentiment and technical downside predictions. Weisberger’s analysis, presented in a November 11 video, highlights profound structural shifts underway in both fundamental and market microstructure, reinforcing the thesis for Bitcoin reaching seven-figure valuations even without an immediate catalyst.

The Inevitable Ascent: Bitcoin's Journey to Seven Figures

Weisberger’s perspective is grounded in a two-part framework: discerning the underlying drivers of Bitcoin acquisition and interpreting the implications of the current market structure. He firmly believes that the trajectory towards a $1 million price point per Bitcoin remains fundamentally intact, irrespective of the lack of an obvious near-term catalyst that often preoccupies market observers. This long-term conviction is crucial for strategic investment decisions in the volatile crypto market.

A Gold Standard Comparison: Bitcoin's Monetary Superiority

On the fundamental front, Weisberger draws a compelling parallel between Bitcoin and gold, particularly focusing on their respective monetary roles and market sizes. Citing gold’s estimated "around $28 trillion" above-ground market value and "about $7 trillion in known reserves below ground," he argues that approximately 80% of gold’s valuation is monetary, not industrial. This assertion is supported by comparing the price relationship between platinum and gold, noting that gold now trades at about two and a half times platinum, a reversal from historical trends where platinum, despite being 30 times rarer and highly valued in jewelry, was typically double the price of gold. This relative-value lens suggests gold's fully diluted monetary value stands at roughly $28 trillion.

In stark contrast, Bitcoin's "fully diluted market cap" currently sits just over $2 trillion. Weisberger posits that if Bitcoin achieves parity or surpasses gold in terms of monetary characteristics, the implied upside is transformative. He asserts, "It could rise to equal gold. Except it’s better than gold on monetary characteristics." He meticulously highlights Bitcoin's inherent advantages as a digital asset: native digital finality, robust resistance to counterfeiting, unparalleled divisibility, transparent and auditable ledger, and a programmatically fixed supply schedule. These attributes collectively circumvent the custody, assay, and transport frictions associated with physical gold, positioning Bitcoin as a superior store of value in the digital age. Even in a scenario where fiat currencies maintain their value, network adoption alone could warrant a multi-fold repricing; in a debasement regime, the asymmetry for Bitcoin is even more pronounced. Weisberger suggests that as the Bitcoin network expands and gains acceptance, its value could realistically "rise by 10 times this or more," further stating via X that the "Fundamental case" for Bitcoin is indeed $1 million in today’s dollars.

Beyond the Noise: Re-evaluating Market Structure

Weisberger critically assesses traditional market structure analyses, particularly challenging the predictive utility of the four-year halving cycle. Historically, this cycle has been associated with a pattern: a halving event, followed by approximately six months of miner-incentive uncertainty, culminating in a relief-to-euphoria rally that eventually transitions into altcoin rotation before a broader market drawdown. However, he contends that this dynamic is losing its relevance due to a significant shift: supply changes are now "irrelevant relative to the amount of demand that’s going on." This is further evidenced by the Bitcoin hash rate chart, which continues to increase at a geometric pace, indicating robust network security and miner confidence. The true price drivers, in Weisberger's view, are the interplay between legacy supply from early holders and burgeoning institutional demand. "It’s basically the OG sellers who are selling over 100,000 [BTC] and the new buyers, whether they’re in ETFs or in MicroStrategy, etc."

The Fading Overhang: Understanding "OG Sellers"

Addressing the selling pressure from these early holders, or "OG sellers," Weisberger provides a nuanced interpretation. He argues that these individuals are engaging in rational diversification of "life-changing gains," rather than capitulating due to a loss of conviction. This distinction is vital, as it implies a finite overhang of selling pressure. Entrepreneurs, he notes, "don’t generally sell everything [...] they sell some at a level to get where they need to be and then [...] sell at later prices." This strategic profit-taking, as it runs its course, will eventually abate, removing a significant hurdle for the next euphoric leg of the market.

Resilient Demand: The Institutional Investor Perspective

Furthermore, Weisberger underscores the remarkable patience of spot ETF investors, despite recent market volatility. He highlights that "Even after all of the carnage of the last few weeks since October 10th, less than 2% of the Bitcoin ETFs have outflown." He characterizes this cohort not as short-term traders reacting to single-digit drawdowns, but as long-horizon allocators "looking for a 10x gain." This steadfast institutional demand provides a stable foundation for Bitcoin's price action. He also contrasts recent market deleveraging – where "$20 billion was liquidated [...] but only five billion of the liquidation was in Bitcoin" – with the 2022 insolvency cascade. Crucially, the current cycle lacks the systemic credit-driven unwind events seen with entities like Celsius or FTX. Without forced sales stemming from insolvency, technical analogies to the 2022 market downturn are, in Weisberger's opinion, fundamentally misplaced. "If there’s no forced sales, why do we expect a sale on the magnitude that happened in 2022 [...]? They’re trying to impute something without taking into account the actual circumstance."

Navigating Market Dynamics: Catalysts and Risks

Weisberger anticipates that price leadership will ultimately return through "liquidity and slow grinding growth," as "hot money" recovers from leverage-driven losses. He expects the selling from early Bitcoin holders to "abate" as their partial profit-taking concludes, setting the stage for the next significant upward movement once a new catalyst emerges. While he makes no pretense of predicting the exact spark – "I’m not a Nostradamus" – he lists plausible vectors consistent with prior cycles, such as "sovereign accumulation" or Bitcoin being "used as collateral." The specific catalyst, he argues, "doesn’t really matter."

A key risk for those contemplating selling their Bitcoin holdings, Weisberger warns, is being out of the market during an inflection point. "Unless you are very nimble, very quick, have no tax consequences, and aren’t out of the market or on vacation in the two or three days when euphoria first starts, then I would be very, very reticent to sell here." He concludes with a candid acknowledgement of the market's capacity to challenge both bullish and bearish convictions. While euphoria might take time to materialize, perhaps after further consolidation or even a brief dip, "at some point it will happen." Disclosing his own position, "I have not sold any sats, nor do I intend to," he reiterates the discipline required in a choppy tape: "Stay safe out there. This market does look interesting and is going to likely stay that way for a while." At press time, BTC traded at $104,954.