Bitcoin Price: LTH Selling & Weak Demand Threatens Rally

Bitcoin Price Stability Challenged Amidst Diverging Market Forces

Bitcoin’s recent performance has been characterized by a notable struggle to maintain price stability above the $102,000 threshold. This current market dynamic, as revealed by on-chain analytics, points to a crucial imbalance between persistent selling pressure from established holders and a marked weakening in fresh market demand. Such a divergence suggests a nuanced shift in market sentiment and underlying transactional behavior, which warrants closer examination.

Insights derived from CryptoQuant’s comprehensive on-chain data indicate that long-term holders (LTHs) are presently engaged in active profit-taking. While this behavior is a customary feature of advanced bull market cycles, the market’s current capacity to effectively absorb these sell-offs appears significantly constrained. This stands in stark contrast to earlier phases of the bull run, where robust and expanding demand readily counteracted increased LTH activity, thereby propelling Bitcoin towards new all-time highs.

Understanding Long-Term Holder Dynamics in Bitcoin's Bull Cycles

Historical Context of LTH Profit-Taking

Data from the esteemed on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, initially disseminated by Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, sheds light on an intriguing evolution in the behavior of Bitcoin holders that is poised to influence the cryptocurrency’s subsequent market trajectory. Moreno’s analysis underscores that the divestment by long-term holders (LTHs) represents a conventional and expected pattern within bull markets. This behavior typically emerges as investors strategically crystallize profits when Bitcoin’s valuation approaches or surpasses historical peak levels.

The CryptoQuant data illustrates a clear trend: the 30-day aggregated sum of LTH spending, vividly depicted by the purple line in the provided chart, has exhibited a consistent upward trajectory since early October. This pattern closely mirrors preceding phases of bullish rallies, specifically those observed in early 2024 and late 2024. During these periods, profit-taking activities by LTHs coincided with a concurrent expansion in market demand, a synergistic dynamic that historically enabled Bitcoin to achieve successive record prices. The visual representation accompanying Moreno’s research delineates these periods through green-shaded areas, denoting positive growth in apparent demand, while red areas signify a contraction.

The Current Shift: LTH Selling Amidst Weakening Demand

A significant paradigm shift has been observed since October 2025. Contrary to previous cycles, where demand effortlessly absorbed LTH sales, this trend has undergone a notable reversal. Despite the continued increase in LTH selling activity, market demand has transitioned into a red-zoned contraction, signaling a pronounced weakening in the market's intrinsic ability to absorb this mounting selling pressure. This concurrent weakening of demand with increasing supply has directly corresponded with Bitcoin's sustained struggle to maintain its position above the critical $102,000 price point. This suggests that the previously robust upward price momentum may be encountering substantial headwinds, indicating a potential loss of bullish impetus in the immediate term.

The Critical Role of Apparent Demand in Market Absorption

Demand as a Counterbalance to Selling Pressure

Moreno's insights emphasize that the paramount factor for market observers to monitor is not merely the aggregate volume of sell-offs by long-term holders, but critically, whether the rate of demand growth can adequately keep pace. In scenarios characterized by robust demand, the substantial influx of supply from long-term holders often precipitates a period of healthy consolidation, which frequently serves as a foundational precursor to subsequent, more significant price surges. Conversely, when the trajectory of demand falls short of offsetting the available supply, the typical market outcome is either protracted price corrections or prolonged periods of sideways, range-bound trading, indicating a lack of clear directional conviction.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and Their Influence on Demand

A substantial proportion of the current market demand for Bitcoin is now channeled through Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). Recent data, however, indicates a sharp and concerning slowdown in the inflows into these investment vehicles. According to comprehensive data compiled by SosoValue, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs concluded the trading week on Friday, November 7, with aggregate net outflows amounting to $558.44 million. This figure represents one of the most substantial single-day outflows recorded in several weeks, underscoring a palpable decline in institutional and retail investor interest through this critical demand avenue.

Implications for Bitcoin's Near-Term Price Trajectory

Unless Bitcoin’s apparent demand experiences a significant and sustained recovery in the forthcoming weeks, and if the current trend of LTH sell-offs persists, these confluent factors are likely to continue exerting downward pressure on price action. This scenario could effectively postpone the commencement of the next significant leg of Bitcoin’s rally. Consequently, under these prevailing conditions, it is plausible to anticipate that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within a relatively narrow trading range, likely between $101,000 and $103,000, for the remainder of November.

At the precise moment of writing, Bitcoin is being traded at approximately $101,655, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.6% over the preceding 24-hour period. The delicate equilibrium between supply and demand remains the pivotal determinant for Bitcoin’s short to medium-term price trajectory, with the current imbalance signaling a period of cautious navigation for market participants.