Bitcoin Bull Run Status: CryptoQuant CEO's Data-Driven Analysis

Bitcoin's current market landscape presents a compelling paradox: a robust on-chain foundation characterized by substantial profitability across diverse investor cohorts, a continuously ascending realized capitalization, and an unprecedented network hashrate. Yet, conspicuously absent is the fervent price acceleration and euphoric sentiment that typically signify the advanced stages of a bull market. This intriguing dichotomy forms the central thesis of CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju's recent comprehensive analysis, which meticulously examines holder cost bases, cohort profitability, market leverage, and the evolving influence of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries on market trends.

The Paradox of Bitcoin's On-Chain Health

The underlying data reveals a remarkably healthy ecosystem. Ju highlights a striking statistic: "Bitcoin wallets' avg cost basis is $55.9K, meaning holders are up ~93% on average." This widespread profitability indicates a strong fundamental base, with the majority of market participants holding assets acquired at significantly lower prices. Furthermore, the realized capitalization, an alternative valuation metric that aggregates coin values at their last transaction price, demonstrated an approximate $8 billion increase this past week. This consistent rise in realized cap is a crucial indicator of sustained on-chain inflows, implying that fresh capital continues to enter the market, establishing higher cost bases for new acquisitions, even during periods of spot price stagnation.

Unpacking Holder Profitability and Realized Capitalization

The persistent growth in realized capitalization is particularly noteworthy. Historically, this metric serves as a less volatile proxy for genuine capital deployment within the Bitcoin network. Its upward trajectory, even amidst sideways price action, suggests a steady accumulation phase where new investment is being absorbed. This is often interpreted as a long-term bullish signal, indicating conviction among market participants despite short-term price fluctuations.

So, if on-chain inflows remain robust and holders are largely in profit, why has the price failed to reflect this enthusiasm with a corresponding upward surge? Ju offers a straightforward explanation: "Price hasn't gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak." This perspective aligns with a market scenario where profitable entities and liquidity providers are actively distributing their holdings, effectively absorbing the new demand. This dynamic precisely accounts for the coexistence of healthy capital inflows and the relatively flat price action observed around the $107,609 level.

Shifting Demand Dynamics and Cohort Behavior

Understanding the origin and evolution of marginal demand is critical for deciphering Bitcoin's current market behavior. According to Ju's analysis, "New inflows mostly come from ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, while CEX traders & miners are sitting on ~2x gains." This suggests a significant shift in the market's demand structure, with institutional players and corporate entities becoming primary drivers of capital influx. However, the influence of these new entrants is not uniform across all market segments.

Dissecting Cohort Cost Bases and Profitability

Ju's breakdown of estimated cohort cost bases and their mark-to-market performance provides crucial insights into the market's inherent stability:

• ETFs / Custodial Wallets: Average cost basis of $112,000, currently at -1% unrealized profit.
• Binance Traders: Average cost basis of $56,000, currently at +96% unrealized profit.
• Miners: Average cost basis of $56,000, currently at +96% unrealized profit.
• Long-term Whales: Average cost basis of $43,000, currently at +155% unrealized profit.
• Current Price: Approximately $107,609.

These figures illustrate a nuanced picture: while short-horizon institutional buyers are hovering near their break-even points, long-term holders continue to command substantial embedded profits. This distribution of profitability is significant; it effectively mitigates the risk of forced selling from new institutional players at the market's current levels. Simultaneously, it implies that the explosive momentum typically fueled by new buyers rapidly moving into significant profit has yet to materialize. The market is in a phase of digestion, with gains being realized by some while new capital establishes its footing.

Leverage, Valuation, and Network Infrastructure

Assessing Market Valuation and Leverage

Further valuation context helps in understanding the present market state. Ju notes that during pronounced bull phases, Bitcoin's market capitalization typically outpaces its realized capitalization, leading to an expanding "valuation multiplier." This widening gap signals a stronger market valuation. "Roughly $1T in on-chain inflows has created a $2T market cap. The gap seems moderate for now," he wrote. A moderate gap is a dual-edged signal; it suggests the market is not excessively frothy, yet it also lacks the exuberant expansion often seen at the peak of cycles. This complements Ju's observation that "Whales' unrealized profits aren't extreme," allowing for two interpretations: either the market has not yet reached a state of widespread euphoria, or the sheer size and maturity of the market mean extreme profit ratios are less likely to occur. This implies a potentially more sustainable, albeit slower, growth trajectory.

The microstructure of perpetual futures and collateral flows further refines this picture. Ju identifies a "sharp" reduction in BTC moving from spot-focused exchanges to futures platforms. This trend suggests that "whales are no longer opening new long positions with BTC collateral as actively as before." If the marginal long position is no longer heavily collateralized by Bitcoin, the market loses a mechanical source of bid intensity and convexity typically derived from such positioning. However, despite this shift in collateral behavior, overall leverage has not reset. Ju points out that "Bitcoin perp leverage remains high despite the recent wipeout," referencing ratios such as BTC-USDT perpetual open interest relative to exchange USDT balances and USDT market cap. This combination implies fewer collateralized longs to drive significant upside, yet sufficient systemic leverage to induce choppy liquidations, hindering clean trending behavior.

The Resilient Network: Hashrate and Miner Confidence

The narrative is further complicated, and in some ways strengthened, by the robust trends in hashrate and industrial supply. "Bitcoin hashrate keeps hitting new highs (~5.96M ASICs online). Public miners are expanding, not downsizing, which is a clear long-term bullish signal. The Bitcoin 'money vessel' keeps growing," Ju states. A consistently rising hashrate, coupled with the expansion of public mining fleets, is a strong testament to long-term investment and confidence in the network's future economics, including both transaction fees and block subsidies. While this doesn't directly guarantee short-term price appreciation, it signifies fundamental network health and security. It may, however, increase miners' treasury management needs, potentially adding to market liquidity in a manner that is neutral to price in the absence of renewed significant demand.

Navigating the Future: A New Market Paradigm?

From Ju's perspective, the demand side of the equation is currently dominated by two primary channels: "Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and Strategy, both slowing buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns." This constitutes a clear, falsifiable thesis: a resurgence in buying activity from these key institutional conduits should reignite spot market buoyancy. Conversely, if their activity remains tepid, realized capitalization may continue its gradual ascent on steady inflows, while price action remains choppy as distribution absorbs this capital.

Cohort profitability also establishes crucial boundary conditions for future scenarios. Ju notes, "Short-term whales (mostly ETFs) from the past 6 months are near break-even. Long-term whales are up ~53%." Historically, significant cycle tops have frequently coincided with extreme unrealized profit ratios for dominant cohorts, creating structural selling pressure as even marginal price increases unlock substantial gains. Ju suggests that the market has not yet reached this point, implying further room for appreciation before a definitive top.

Crucially, Ju cautions that the market's current regime may have already diverged from its traditional four-year cyclical patterns: "In the past, the market moved in a clear four-year cycle of accumulation and distribution between retail investors and whales. Now it's harder to predict where and how much new liquidity will enter, making it unlikely for Bitcoin to follow the same cyclical pattern again." This highlights a fundamental shift in market dynamics, where the increased institutional participation and diverse liquidity sources render historical patterns potentially less predictive.

In summary, Ju's analysis sketches a market defined by three key characteristics. Firstly, the fundamental "money in" metrics appear resilient: realized capitalization is increasing, holders are broadly profitable, and network security has reached new pinnacles. Secondly, the microstructure is neither overtly bullish nor bearish but rather cautious: fewer whales are initiating BTC-collateralized long positions, yet systemic leverage remains elevated, contributing to volatile, non-trending price action. Thirdly, the baton of demand is primarily held by ETF and corporate treasury channels, whose recent deceleration is the very factor that, if reversed, could reignite market momentum. As of press time, Bitcoin traded at $107,609, awaiting the next decisive move from these influential players.