Bitcoin Bottom Incoming? Expert Predicts Cycle Low & Upside

The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has recently experienced significant volatility, including substantial liquidation events. Despite these turbulent conditions, a prominent figure in crypto analysis, Trader Mayne, maintains a steadfast bullish outlook, asserting that the peak of the current bull cycle is yet to be reached. In a recent video update on November 5, Mayne articulated his conviction that the market is presently establishing a critical weekly cycle low, which he posits could serve as a springboard for another upward movement extending into the close of the year. He emphasized his long-term dedication to Bitcoin, stating his position as a "BTC maxi from the spot perspective," even while acknowledging the mixed results of his short-term tactical trading strategies amidst the prevailing market chop. This perspective offers a contrarian view to those anticipating an imminent market downturn, suggesting that current price action might be a precursor to further gains.

Analyzing the Bitcoin Market Bottom

Mayne interprets the recent market sell-off, which follows a substantial $20 billion liquidation event on October 10, not as a systemic flaw but rather as an inherent characteristic of late-cycle price discovery within the cryptocurrency landscape. He posited that speculative leverage had rapidly re-accumulated, particularly within altcoins, leading to an inevitable deleveraging event. However, he highlights that major cryptocurrencies continue to present ample volatility alongside a more discernible market structure, making them more attractive for analysis. Mayne critically observed the market's tendency to quickly re-engage in leveraged positions, remarking, "People were right back on with the leverage… You really can’t teach an old dog new tricks." Consequently, he has recalibrated his focus to primarily concentrate on the "majors" and maintains a robust core spot holding that he has not divested, reinforcing his long-term confidence in Bitcoin's foundational value. This analytical framework suggests that such corrections are healthy for the market, cleansing excessive speculation and preparing for sustainable growth.

Cycle Theory and Key Price Levels

Central to Mayne's near-term market timing is his reliance on established cycle theory. He specifically references the widely recognized four-year market cycle template, a concept popularized by veteran analyst Bob Loukas. Based on this framework, Mayne projects that the broader cryptocurrency market top is likely to manifest between late 2025 and early 2026. However, his immediate focus is keenly directed towards identifying and confirming a weekly low within a precise timeframe, which he indicated extends approximately until mid-next week, around November 10. This granular attention to short-term cycles is crucial for pinpointing optimal entry or confirmation points for the anticipated subsequent market leg.

For confirmation that the recent decline has been fully exhausted and a bottom is indeed forming, Mayne articulated specific technical criteria. He seeks to observe "time and space away from this low," signifying a period of consolidation or upward movement that demonstrates strength. Crucially, a reclaim of the monthly open, situated in the range of $110,000–$112,000, is a prerequisite for a definitive bullish signal. Should this market structure materialize, Mayne outlined a clear invalidation level for his bullish thesis: a weekly close below $98,000. This level, effectively a "cut point," would signal a significant shift in market dynamics, potentially invalidating the prevailing bull market scenario. Establishing such a clear invalidation point is a critical risk management strategy, allowing traders to adapt their positions should the market trajectory deviate from the primary bullish expectation.

Cross-Asset Analysis and Market Microstructure

Beyond traditional cycle analysis, Mayne integrates a compelling cross-asset perspective, which he asserts has historically proven reliable in preceding market impulses. His observation suggests a consistent pattern where gold initiates a rally, typically followed by Bitcoin approximately 60 to 90 days later. Referencing his current chart analysis, Mayne noted that gold's recent advance is now roughly 80–90 days old. If this established correlation persists, it would strongly indicate that Bitcoin is poised to initiate its next significant upward movement. Furthermore, he anticipates a significant rebound in the Bitcoin-versus-gold cross-chart, forecasting that Bitcoin will substantially outperform the precious metal for the remainder of the year. This inter-market analysis provides an additional layer of conviction to his bullish thesis for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

A more qualitative, yet equally significant, input to Mayne’s analysis is the conspicuous absence of a definitive "blow-off top" in Bitcoin's price action when compared to the parabolic surges observed in other asset classes, notably AI-focused equities and gold. He points to the robust performance of mega-cap technology stocks, such as Nvidia, which have demonstrated significant upward trajectories since spring, and gold’s recent sharp ascent. Mayne finds it incongruous that Bitcoin has yet to experience a similar climactic rally, stating, "it just doesn’t sit right… that Bitcoin hasn’t had [its blow-off]." This observation leads him to infer that substantial latent upside energy still resides within Bitcoin, awaiting release, particularly if the anticipated weekly low successfully solidifies. This suggests that the current market structure for Bitcoin may be fundamentally different from other assets that have already experienced their peak exuberance, leaving room for further appreciation.

Delving into market microstructure and seasonal patterns, Mayne highlighted the significance of early-month dynamics. He noted that in historical "green" (positive performance) months, the lowest price point frequently establishes itself within the first third of the month. This phenomenon, he explains, mirrors how the opening range on a Monday often sets the context for the entire trading week for intraday participants. Consequently, if November is indeed poised to conclude with positive gains, an early-month low, coupled with a successful reclaim of the monthly open, would align perfectly with his overarching cycle analysis. His strategic stance is unequivocal: "If we’re bullish for November… I want to be a bull above the monthly open," underscoring the critical importance of these early-month price levels as confirmation signals.

Acknowledging Bearish Scenarios and Long-Term Outlook

While maintaining a primary bullish stance, Mayne's comprehensive analysis is far from one-sided. He conscientiously acknowledged several emerging bearish signals observed on higher timeframes. These include a discernible break in weekly market structure, previous "sweeps" on both weekly and monthly charts, and the development of momentum divergences, all of which warrant careful consideration. He particularly cautioned about the potential for the recent price range to resolve as a phase of distribution, hypothesizing that "maybe the banks literally came in… and they’ve just been distributing on us here." Furthermore, Mayne meticulously outlined a plausible alternative path involving a "lower-high" scenario, where any subsequent rally might falter either beneath or marginally above the previous peak before succumbing to a breakdown. He articulated a scenario where "we make an all-time high, but it’s just a weak one… you’re going to have the biggest bear div of all bear divs up here," emphasizing that a marginal new high swiftly followed by a sharp rejection would necessitate a complete reversal of his current bullish posture. This balanced approach highlights his commitment to adapting to market conditions.

Medium-Term Arcs and Macroeconomic Risks

For the medium-term, Mayne articulates two primary, yet competing, macroeconomic scenarios. His base case posits that the traditional four-year market rhythm will prevail, with the ultimate cycle top occurring in the late-2025 window, leading to a bearish bias throughout 2026. However, he anticipates that any potential drawdowns in Bitcoin during this bearish phase would be "truncated" compared to previous cycles' 80% collapses, largely due to the increasing depth of institutional participation in the market, which could provide more resilient support levels. Alternatively, Mayne considers a scenario where the market "right-translates," an unusual extension of the cycle wherein a new all-time high could materialize as late as Q1 2026. Such an event would necessitate a fundamental reassessment of the conventional four-year cycle template. Regardless of which scenario unfolds, his strategic plan involves selling into strength during the next upward leg. He remains flexible, prepared to reassess his stance should the market exhibit higher-low continuation after establishing a new high, succinctly stating, "If the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train."

Concluding his comprehensive analysis, Mayne identified the US dollar (DXY) as a significant risk pivot for 2026. He contends that the DXY is currently forming a "serious low" across multi-month and yearly timeframes, a pattern that could precede a substantial "deflationary rally" in the dollar's value. While acknowledging that the dollar's strength is not a direct, one-to-one driver for cryptocurrencies, he highlighted its historical tendency to exert downward pressure on crypto and other risk assets. This macroeconomic overlay, combined with his perception of excessive exuberance, or "froth," in AI-linked equities, forms the foundation of his cautionary outlook beyond Bitcoin's immediate anticipated advance. As of press time, Bitcoin was observed trading at $103,412, reflecting the dynamic and evolving nature of the digital asset market.