Bitcoin Bottom In? CMT Pro Reveals Key Levels & Reversal Cues

The cryptocurrency market recently witnessed a notable downturn as Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp correction over the past weekend. This price action saw BTC breaking below the $76,000 threshold and briefly touching the $75,000 region, indicative of an accelerating sell-off as liquidity thinned. This movement pushed Bitcoin into a critical horizontal support band, precisely identified by Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Aksel Kibar, spanning approximately $73,700 to $76,500.

This market shift did not occur in isolation. Broader macroeconomic conditions had already positioned markets in a risk-off posture, characterized by substantial deleveraging dynamics, particularly evident in the precious metals sector. Such an environment often amplifies weekend volatility, where reduced liquidity can lead to more pronounced price swings and the rapid triggering of stop-loss orders.

Assessing the Bitcoin Bottom: A CMT Perspective

Aksel Kibar, a distinguished Chartered Market Technician and the visionary founder of Tech Charts LLC, has been closely monitoring the aforementioned support range. Through a series of insightful posts shared on X (formerly Twitter), Kibar articulated a nuanced perspective, cautioning traders against prematurely interpreting the mere presence at a support level as an automatic green light for initiating long positions. His central tenet, "price reaching support is a location, not a signal," underscores a critical distinction that is paramount for traders seeking to avoid the perils of "catching a falling knife."

Kibar's analytical framework, meticulously detailed in his communications from late January and early February, is firmly rooted in the principles of classical chart patterns. He explicitly eschews speculative "guessing" of market lows. As he eloquently stated, "Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy signal. We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming around support areas." This highlights the imperative for observable market structure to precede any tactical adjustments, although he acknowledges that individual trading strategies may diverge.

The Quest for Reversal Patterns, Not Just Levels

The current trading range is perceived by Kibar as a potential zone for a market bottom to coalesce. However, he maintains that his strategic approach necessitates patience, awaiting the emergence of a discernible reversal formation that fundamentally alters the probabilistic profile of a trade. On January 30, he elaborated on his rationale for not chasing price purely based on its proximity to a mapped support level.

"I'm not interested to find the support because I'm not trying to catch the falling knife," he wrote. "I'm interested to find a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A H&S bottom. I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal." This deliberate trade-off, he asserts, is an integral aspect of self-awareness in trading—understanding one's strengths and limitations is crucial. This underscores the disciplined methodology characteristic of seasoned technical analysts.

Expanding on the concept of "base building," Kibar linked it to a concrete, actionable trigger: a breakout above the $91,200 level. He identified this price point as the completion criteria for a double-bottom scenario he had previously referenced. "When I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern (preferably with horizontal boundaries), I'm referring to the breakout above 91.2K (completion of a double bottom)," he explained. He further emphasized that such confirmation becomes "even more crucial because we are below long-term average," before he can "submit for bullish interpretation."

Conviction Over Conjecture: Dispelling Psychological Traps

Kibar's insights also robustly address a common psychological pitfall associated with "bottom-calling"—the erroneous conflation of prudent caution with undue fear. In a candid exchange on X, where a user suggested he appeared bullish but hesitant to "make a call" to avoid being incorrect, Kibar concurred with the premise but refined the underlying motivation.

"Everything correct," he responded. "Except not I don't want to be wrong but to have higher conviction. We can't act in markets with the fear of being wrong." This crucial distinction elucidates why his analytical framework mandates irrefutable evidence of buyer engagement, rather than assuming a single price level will hold by default. When queried about the potential for Bitcoin to be forming the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed the notion as premature, stating, "Too early to start thinking about this."

In his most recent commentary, Kibar delineated specific market behaviors that, in his estimation, can indicate emerging demand around support zones. He presented these not as a rigid checklist, but rather as "signs" signifying buyers' willingness to defend a particular area. These include a noticeable increase in trading activity and volatility, the appearance of candlesticks exhibiting clear rejection (such as doji-like formations characterized by elongated lower wicks), and the development of short-term reversal structures like double bottoms or inverse head-and-shoulders patterns.

Kibar further introduced a fundamental market structure observation, cultivated during his tenure managing a substantial fund in the United Arab Emirates: "If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers." He posited that institutional-scale buyers often require significant supply to accumulate large positions without inadvertently driving prices against their own interests. Consequently, periods of intense selling can, paradoxically, create the necessary conditions for such accumulation, contingent upon underlying motives and prevailing market liquidity. This principle was briefly extended to entities like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), with Kibar noting the potential for large buyers to seek "that chunk at a reasonable price" in the "wild wild west" of the market. At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $76,713.