Uncertainty to Strategy: 2025 Business Resilience Guide

By year-end 2025, a critical insight from PYMNTS Intelligence’s "The Certainty Project" series became undeniable: uncertainty is rarely a singular event. Instead, it manifests as a series of compounding challenges, shifting from immediate cyber risks and payment fraud to complex geopolitical factors like changing trade rules. These macro-level shifts invariably impact practical business operations, leading to delayed technology rollouts, elevated supplier prices, diminished profit margins, and noticeable changes in consumer spending habits. This article delves into the transformative journey businesses undertook in 2025, converting unforeseen challenges into strategic advantages and fostering a new era of resilience.

Key Points

• Uncertainty in 2025 was a complex, compounding phenomenon, evolving from internal risks to external economic pressures.
• Early responses focused on protection against cyber risk and payment fraud, often delaying innovation.
• The emergence of tariffs drastically reshaped competitive strategies and operational planning for middle-market firms.
• Financing decisions became a key indicator, with high-uncertainty firms favoring traditional, transparent options over embedded lending.
• While analytics and AI adoption accelerated, funding for such transformations was significantly hampered for highly uncertain businesses, creating a "two-speed market" in resilience.
• The "resilience gap" widened throughout the year, heavily influenced by reliance on international suppliers and proactive planning.
• By year-end, tariffs and macro signals were integrated into core business strategy, shifting from surprise disruptions to operational variables.
• Overall, firms were categorized into "builders" who leveraged tech for advantage and "survivors" focused on maintaining functionality.

Early Challenges: Cyber Risk & Fraud as Innovation Inhibitors

The year 2025 commenced with a primary focus on internal risk management, particularly safeguarding operational integrity. PYMNTS Intelligence’s surveys, typically involving 60 middle-market decision-makers across various leadership roles, revealed a significant apprehension. In January, cybersecurity risk emerged as a direct impediment to innovation. A substantial 42% of middle-market CFOs expressed high concern regarding cyber threats, a figure that soared to 88% among firms already grappling with high levels of uncertainty. The ripple effects were tangible; 81% of these high-uncertainty firms reported that cybersecurity challenges frequently compelled them to delay or cancel crucial innovation or technology initiatives.

By February, the scope of cyber risk broadened beyond IT departments, deeply embedding itself within payment workflows. Only 28% of firms utilized automated procurement fraud detection systems, contrasting sharply with 50% relying on staff training. Yet, automation was overwhelmingly cited as the most impactful fraud-reduction strategy by 71% of firms, compared to 27% for training. The financial stakes escalated under higher uncertainty, with 87% of high-uncertainty firms reporting very or extremely significant customer losses attributed to procurement fraud, markedly higher than the 67% overall average. This early trend highlighted a crucial executive response: in environments of low predictability, spending prioritized immediate loss prevention over long-term competitive upgrades.

The Rise of Tariffs: Policy Shifts and Competitive Posture

As spring unfolded, "The Certainty Project" expanded its analytical lens from pure risk containment to the broader spectrum of competitive strategy and policy volatility. By March, product leaders increasingly described a market squeezed from both ends. A notable 13% of middle-market product leaders identified startups as their primary competitors, a significant increase from 5% just six months prior. Concurrently, regulatory uncertainty intensified, with 30% citing policy changes as a primary competitive obstacle, up from 17%. Interestingly, cost pressures, a dominant driver of uncertainty in 2024, receded, while concerns about technological advancement surged. This period also saw tariffs transition from a background risk to an undeniable operational reality.

The March tariff edition revealed a diverse distribution of CFOs across uncertainty levels. While 55% of CFOs anticipated an improvement in workflow and operational certainty over the next 12 months, six in ten also expected tariffs to heighten uncertainty and planning complexities, a sentiment that rose to 77% among high-uncertainty firms. A critical finding from this period was the stark lack of preparedness: only 8% of high-uncertainty firms had contingency plans in place, with 46% having initiated no planning whatsoever. Initial tariff responses were largely tactical, focusing on supplier negotiations and projected price increases.

Financing in Flux: Strategic Tools Versus Safe Choices

As the year progressed into May, financing strategy emerged as a revealing indicator of certainty. Half of low-uncertainty firms reported utilizing financing as a strategic tool, whereas only one in four high-uncertainty firms claimed the same. Despite the proliferation of embedded finance in consumer contexts, only 20% of middle-market firms preferred embedded lending over traditional options, a figure that plummeted to a mere 7% among high-uncertainty firms. For the most uncertain businesses, familiarity and explicit terms were paramount, with 27% citing clarity of terms and conditions as the primary reason for adhering to traditional lending. This implied a clear mandate for financial institutions and FinTechs: in uncertain climates, features like transparent pricing, predictable repayment schedules, and trusted controls function as critical product differentiators, rather than mere hygiene factors.

Mid-Year Turbulence: Confidence, Analytics, and AI Adoption

By June, the impact of tariff shock created a notable divergence between goods and services firms, particularly distinguishing those with high versus low uncertainty. A striking 54% of goods firms expressed a lack of confidence in their ability to adapt to supply chain shocks, a significant increase from 30% in February. More alarmingly, zero highly uncertain companies reported being very or extremely confident in handling tariff-related supply chain disruptions in May. This downturn in confidence, however, did not lead to stagnation; firms actively retooled their operations.

May saw nearly 8 out of 10 goods firms redesigning workflows, a rise from 62% in April, and 65% leveraging analytics for insights and forecasting. AI adoption also experienced an uptick, with 35% of goods firms increasing their AI usage. Yet, the ability to fund this transformation was uneven; 84.6% of high-uncertainty firms stated that tariffs had already restricted their capacity to fund AI or automation, compared to a mere 17.4% of low-uncertainty firms. This created a "two-speed market" for resilience, where turbulence simultaneously motivated and constrained automation efforts. August reinforced that uncertainty extended beyond macroeconomics, encompassing operational and adversarial challenges. Social engineering incidents targeting payments were almost universal among middle-market firms, with vendor exposure frequently identified as a weak link.

Deepening Divide: The Resilience Gap and Profit Squeeze

By September, tariffs and softening demand created a double squeeze on the middle market. Over 70% of services firms and 90% of goods firms raised prices due to macro conditions, including tariffs. However, the effectiveness of these price increases waned as demand weakened, prompting product leaders to pursue more structural changes. One-quarter of goods firms discontinued products affected by tariffs, while one in five redesigned products to incorporate alternative materials or production methods.

October quantified the emerging "resilience gap." Only one in five firms heavily reliant on international suppliers (over 30% abroad) reported a good or great year in 2025. Conversely, nearly two-thirds of firms with low international reliance (15% or less) enjoyed a positive year. Despite widespread price hikes, 58% of businesses still reported declining profit margins. Highly exposed firms also experienced pronounced demand declines, with 91% seeing a fall in B2B demand and 86% in B2C demand.

Year-End: From Shock to Strategic Integration

As 2025 drew to a close in November and December, a subtle yet significant shift became evident: tariffs were no longer perceived as temporary disruptions but were actively being operationalized into business strategy. In November, CFO investment strategies bifurcated between caution and growth, though goods firms were notably more inclined towards restraint. Over 80% of CFOs indicated that tariff effects were at least moderately integrated into annual budgeting, with nearly 40% reporting deep integration.

December’s product leaders described a state of "peak uncertainty," shaped by tariffs, cooling demand, and delayed macroeconomic data. Goods firms were disproportionately affected, with 47% of product leaders in this sector labeling tariffs as mostly or completely negative for business finances. Demand sensitivity was paramount; 90% of B2C-focused goods firms reported macro conditions cutting into demand, a sentiment echoed by three-quarters of B2B-focused firms. Over half of product leaders noted that tariff disruptions diverted priorities from long-term technological investments to short-term operational fixes, while 60% cited tariffs as constraining their ability to fund AI and automation.

Despite these considerable challenges, a form of conditional optimism persisted. Approximately two-thirds of goods product leaders and 8 in 10 services leaders anticipated that tariffs, over time, would ultimately enhance supply chain resilience.

Defining Themes of the Certainty Cycle

The year’s "Certainty Project" editions consistently highlighted several recurring patterns:

• Uncertainty bifurcated firms into "builders" who strategically invested in analytics and AI for competitive advantage, and "survivors" who primarily spent to maintain basic functionality.
• Periods of low predictability often led to delayed innovation, unless technology became the singular viable path to regaining control. Early cyber and fraud risks stalled initiatives, while later tariff pressures necessitated workflow redesigns.
• Pricing power diminished as consumers adapted to economic realities. Firms broadly increased prices, yet profit margins often fell, accompanied by a softening of overall demand.
• Business resilience became strongly correlated with supplier exposure and the maturity of planning processes. Early gaps in contingency planning foreshadowed the widening resilience gap observed later in the year.
• For financial products, "certainty features" became a premium. Clear terms and trusted channels were paramount for high-uncertainty borrowers, underscoring the demand for reliability in volatile times.

In conclusion, 2025 served as a pivotal year where businesses, particularly in the middle market, learned to navigate a perpetually uncertain landscape. The evolution from being surprised by unforeseen challenges to integrating them into a coherent strategic framework underscores a profound shift towards proactive resilience and adaptive innovation in the global economy.