Bitcoin Bear Market: ETFs & Treasury Firms Offload BTC?

Decoding the Bitcoin Market Shift: Are Major Players Retreating?

The Bitcoin market structure is widely believed to have undergone a profound transformation following the considerable price correction observed on October 10, 2025. While the flagship cryptocurrency has shown signs of recovery in the aftermath of this market turbulence, an increasing number of analysts and market participants suggest that the bear market cycle may have already commenced. With Bitcoin's price currently hovering below its opening value for 2025, constructing a compelling bullish argument for the world's largest digital asset has become progressively challenging. Furthermore, a crucial data point concerning a significant class of Bitcoin investors has recently emerged, lending additional weight to the hypothesis of an unfolding bear market.

Who Are the "Dolphins" in the Crypto Ocean?

In the intricate ecosystem of cryptocurrency investors, different groups are often categorized by the volume of assets they hold. This classification helps in understanding their potential market influence and behavioral patterns. Among these, "dolphins" represent a particularly relevant segment. According to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, dolphins are characterized as wallet addresses possessing a substantial quantity of Bitcoin, typically ranging between 100 to 1,000 BTC. This places them strategically between the smaller retail investors, often termed "shrimps," and the colossal institutional entities or ultra-high-net-worth individuals known as "whales." The significance of dolphins lies in their collective market impact, often reflecting a blend of sophisticated individual investors and smaller institutional players, including — crucially — Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury companies.

The Shifting Tides: Dolphin Balance Growth in Decline

The hypothesis regarding the commencement of a Bitcoin bear market has gained considerable traction, supported by insightful on-chain analysis. In a recent post on the social media platform X, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, presented compelling data to substantiate this claim. His conclusion is primarily derived from observing the Balance Growth metric pertaining to the "dolphins" investor group. Historically, consistent growth in the holdings of such significant investor cohorts is often indicative of strong accumulation phases and bullish market sentiment. However, the latest data paints a divergent picture.

From Accumulation to Distribution? Unpacking the Numbers

According to the most recent findings from CryptoQuant, the trajectory of BTC holdings among "dolphins" has experienced a marked deceleration over the past year, exhibiting a discernible downward trend. Moreno interprets this negative shift in balance growth as a strong indicator of an emerging Bitcoin bear market. To put this into perspective, Moreno highlighted that these "dolphin" addresses collectively increased their year-over-year holdings by approximately 965,000 BTC when the price of Bitcoin ascended to its current all-time high, nearing the $125,000 mark. This period represented a significant accumulation phase, signaling robust confidence and investment from this crucial cohort.

However, the landscape has significantly altered. With Bitcoin's price now sitting nearly 30% below its historical peak, the aggregate balance held by these "Bitcoin Dolphins" has diminished to approximately 694,000 coins. This substantial reduction, amounting to over 270,000 BTC, raises pertinent questions about their current market strategy. Moreno explicitly stated in his post on X: "This address cohort includes ETFs and Treasury companies, which have also stopped buying." This assertion is particularly noteworthy, as it suggests a broader trend of reduced institutional accumulation and potentially increased distribution.

Further supporting this narrative, data from SoSoValue reveals that US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded net outflows in five out of the last six weeks. This consistent pattern of outflows underscores a broader divestment trend among institutional vehicles that are often reflective of the "dolphin" cohort. Concurrently, crypto treasury companies, which had previously garnered immense interest and investment from retail participants, have faced significant challenges in recent months, with retail investors reportedly losing tens of billions due to the initial hype. While explicit reports of large-scale crypto treasury sell-offs have been infrequent, the observable decline in the "dolphins’" collective holdings, as evidenced by on-chain metrics, strongly suggests an active — albeit perhaps subtle — offloading or at least a halt in further accumulation.

Broader Market Implications and Bitcoin's Current Stance

The insights gleaned from the "dolphins'" behavior are critical for understanding the current market dynamics of Bitcoin. Their shift from a period of robust accumulation to one of stagnation or even distribution points to a significant change in sentiment among a vital segment of investors, including institutional players. This trend, coupled with the consistent net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, collectively paints a picture that diverges sharply from the fervent bullish sentiment witnessed during Bitcoin's peak.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at approximately $89,151, having registered a decline of over 3% in the preceding 24 hours. This price action, while subject to daily volatility, gains added significance when viewed through the lens of changing investor behavior among key cohorts like the "dolphins." For market participants and analysts alike, closely monitoring the accumulation and distribution patterns of these strategic investor groups will be paramount in accurately forecasting Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months. The collective actions of ETFs and treasury firms, as reflected in the "dolphin" metric, are providing increasingly clear signals regarding the potential direction of the broader cryptocurrency market.