XRP Price Downtrend: Bearish Signals Point to $2.05 Retest

Key Points

• XRP's price has recently declined by 23%, signaling an ongoing correction.
• Analysts suggest a potential retest of the $2.05 Fibonacci level, supported by bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
• A recent partnership with Mastercard, while initially boosting XRP, saw its gains quickly reversed.
• Despite short-term bearish outlooks, some experts forecast a long-term explosive growth for XRP, potentially reaching $14-$50.
• The altcoin currently trades around $2.22, maintaining significant year-to-date gains of 318%.

Over the past month, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed considerable volatility, with XRP, one of the leading altcoins, experiencing a significant price correction. Its value has declined by a notable 23% following a broader market downturn that began around October 10. This substantial drop has led many market observers and analysts to question whether the correction phase for XRP is nearing its end or if further downside is imminent. This article delves into the technical indicators and expert opinions shaping the current outlook for XRP, examining both immediate bearish signals and long-term bullish projections.

Analyzing XRP's Recent Price Dynamics

Post-Market Crash Volatility

The recent 23% price reduction in XRP highlights the persistent selling pressure that has gripped the altcoin market. This downward momentum is largely a consequence of the wider crypto market crash earlier in October, which saw many digital assets struggle to regain their previous highs. For XRP specifically, the inability to sustain upward trajectories post-market shocks has fueled speculation among investors and traders regarding its short-term price stability.

The Mastercard Partnership Effect

Amidst this backdrop of market uncertainty, Ripple, the company behind XRP, announced a significant collaboration during its Ripple Swell 2025 event in New York. The partnership involves Mastercard, WebBank, and crypto exchange Gemini, aiming to test Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin for settling credit card transactions. This news, initially perceived as a major positive catalyst, briefly propelled the XRP price towards the $2.41 mark.

However, as market expert Casi Trades noted on X (formerly Twitter), the enthusiasm surrounding this announcement might have been premature. The initial surge was short-lived, with the XRP price quickly retracing its steps and failing to maintain its position above the previous Fibonacci Wave 1 low. This rapid reversal suggests that while institutional partnerships are vital for long-term adoption, their immediate impact on price can be fleeting in a bearish market environment.

Bearish Indicators and Short-Term Outlook

Fibonacci Levels and Retest Prospects

The failure of XRP to hold its gains after the Mastercard announcement has reinforced the conviction among some analysts that the altcoin’s correction is far from over. Casi Trades, for instance, postulates that the Wave 3 low, identified at the $2.05 mark, has not yet been adequately tested. According to her technical analysis, the XRP price is likely to continue its downward trend towards this critical Fibonacci level to complete subwave 5 of Wave 3. This indicates a potential retest of this psychological and technical support level, which could present a significant juncture for XRP's short-term trajectory.

Fibonacci retracement levels are widely used by traders to identify potential support and resistance areas. The premise here is that following a significant price movement, the price will retrace a predictable portion of the move before continuing in the original direction. A retest of the $2.05 level would align with this principle, suggesting a necessary consolidation before any potential recovery.

RSI Divergence: A Sign of Weakness

Further supporting this bearish outlook is the analysis of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI, a momentum oscillator, measures the speed and change of price movements. A divergence in the RSI, particularly a bearish divergence where the price makes a higher high but the RSI makes a lower high, signals weakening momentum and often precedes a price correction. In XRP's case, such a divergence observed at the recent price high strongly suggests that a retest of the lower trendline is imminent. This confluence of bearish signals from both Fibonacci analysis and momentum indicators paints a cautious picture for XRP in the immediate future.

Contrasting Bullish Projections for XRP

Macro Wave Analysis and Ambitious Targets

Despite the prevailing short-term bearish sentiment, a segment of analysts maintains an exceptionally bullish long-term outlook for XRP. Egrag Crypto, a prominent market analyst, recently articulated a thesis suggesting that the current price formation resembles a complex range rather than a simplistic ascending wedge or rectangle. This interpretation forms the basis for remarkably ambitious price projections.

Based on measured moves within this perceived range, projections suggest that XRP could realistically achieve a new all-time high, potentially reaching around $10. Furthermore, if the current market phase is indeed identified as Macro Wave 2, then the anticipated Wave 3 could be significantly larger, approximately 1.618 times the length of Wave 1. Such a scenario could place XRP's price targets between an impressive $14 and $25, signifying substantial growth from its current valuation.

The $0.77 vs. $50 Wick Debate

Egrag Crypto also weighed in on the ongoing speculation regarding historical price "wicks" – rapid, temporary price movements captured on exchange charts. While many in the community believe that XRP must revisit its $0.77 wick observed on Binance, Egrag presented a compelling counter-argument. He highlighted the equally notable, albeit often overlooked, $50 "wick" observed on the Gemini crypto exchange. Egrag argues that dismissing the potential for XRP to reach $50 would be a significant oversight, especially if the principle of market symmetry comes into play. Market symmetry suggests that price movements, particularly in fractal markets like cryptocurrency, often mirror previous patterns or reach symmetrical extensions of prior moves.

The analyst concluded his thesis with a bold prediction: this current market cycle could culminate in the XRP price achieving that coveted $50 level. This would occur during what he terms the "final blow-off phase" of the market, a period characterized by parabolic price increases driven by extreme FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and retail investor enthusiasm. Such an ascent would imply an astonishing 2,155% uptrend from current levels, positioning XRP as one of the top-performing assets in the coming cycle.

Conclusion

The current trajectory of XRP presents a complex narrative, oscillating between immediate bearish pressures and highly ambitious long-term bullish forecasts. While short-term technical indicators, such as the bearish divergence in the RSI and the failure to hold gains from the Mastercard partnership, suggest a potential retest of the $2.05 level, the underlying sentiment among some long-term analysts remains strongly positive. Projections ranging from $10 to an extraordinary $50 underscore the potential volatility and speculative nature inherent in the cryptocurrency market.

As of writing, XRP trades at approximately $2.22. Despite the recent correction, it still boasts an impressive year-to-date gain of 318%, according to CoinGecko data. This remarkable performance, even amidst recent pullbacks, continues to highlight XRP's significant position in the digital asset landscape. Investors are advised to consider both the technical analysis pointing to short-term weakness and the macro-level projections hinting at explosive future growth when making informed decisions regarding XRP.