Home Depot Boycott: Holiday Sales & Consumer Demand Impact

The retail sector, particularly large enterprises like Home Depot, currently navigates a complex landscape marked by fluctuating consumer demand, persistent economic pressures, and an emergent wave of consumer activism. While traditionally banking on the festive season to bolster sales, Home Depot faces an additional and formidable challenge this year: a significant nationwide boycott spearheaded by grassroots organizations. This analysis delves into the economic headwinds impacting Home Depot and examines the potential ramifications of the impending boycott on its holiday sales and long-term market position.

Understanding Home Depot's Market Headwinds

For several years, Home Depot has contended with a subdued consumer spending environment, exacerbated by prevailing national concerns regarding inflation and the escalating costs of housing. The company's second-quarter earnings report for 2025, while indicating a modest 1.4% year-over-year increase in U.S. comparable sales, simultaneously unveiled a critical underlying issue: a 2.6% year-over-year decline in customer visits at its same-store locations, as highlighted by data from Placer.ai. This divergence suggests that while average transaction values might be increasing, the frequency of engagement with the brand is diminishing, signaling a contraction in its active customer base.

During an August earnings call, Home Depot executives acknowledged the prevailing caution among consumers. Richard McPhail, Home Depot's Chief Financial Officer, specifically noted that elevated mortgage rates—consistently above 6% since 2022—are prompting customers to defer substantial discretionary home improvement projects, such as major bathroom or kitchen renovations, which typically necessitate debt financing. This economic prudence directly impacts Home Depot's revenue streams, as these larger projects represent a significant portion of its higher-margin sales.

Despite these economic uncertainties, Home Depot, alongside numerous other national retailers, had been anticipating a significant surge in sales during the upcoming holiday season. This optimism is generally rooted in historical consumer behavior, where festive periods traditionally trigger increased spending. Projections for the 2025 holiday season indicate a robust consumer engagement:

• Each consumer is projected to allocate an average of $890.49 towards holiday gifts, decorations, food, and other seasonal expenditures.
• A substantial 85% of consumers anticipate higher prices due to tariffs, influencing spending strategies.
• Approximately 54% of consumers plan to commence their holiday shopping early, aiming to distribute their budget more effectively.
• Notably, 63% of consumers intend to concentrate the majority of their holiday purchases during the Thanksgiving weekend, marking an increase from 59% in 2024.

Phil Rist, Executive Vice President of Strategy at Prosper, reiterated the cultural significance of the winter holidays, particularly for families with children, who are expected to augment their gift budgets by an average of over $30, underscoring a persistent willingness to spend despite broader economic anxieties.

The Impending "We Ain't Buying It" Boycott

Against this backdrop of cautious optimism for holiday sales, Home Depot faces a potent new threat: a nationwide boycott. The "We Ain't Buying It" campaign, orchestrated by influential grassroots organizations including Black Voters Matter, Indivisible, and Until Freedom, urges consumers to "hit pause on shopping from major corporations" from November 27 to December 1. This strategic timing coincides with the critical Thanksgiving retail week, a period responsible for nearly 20% of annual retail sales between Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

The boycott specifically targets Amazon, Target, and Home Depot, contending that these companies are actively "undermining democracy." For Home Depot, the specific point of contention revolves around its alleged cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in immigration crackdown efforts. The campaign's website asserts that Home Depot is "allowing ICE agents to illegally detain and kidnap laborers from their stores," thereby compromising the safety of laborers seeking employment.

Allegations and Home Depot's Response

Reports of ICE raids occurring in front of some Home Depot store locations have fueled the accusations. The organizers emphasize that these actions create an unsafe environment for workers within their communities. However, Home Depot has publicly refuted these allegations. In a statement to NPR in August, the company clarified its position: "We ask associates to report any suspected immigration enforcement operations immediately and not to engage for their own safety… We aren't notified that immigration enforcement activities are going to happen, and we aren't involved in them. In many cases, we don't know that arrests have taken place until after they're over. We're required to follow all federal and local rules and regulations in every market where we operate." This statement underscores Home Depot's stance of non-involvement and adherence to legal mandates, while also highlighting its apparent lack of prior notification regarding such enforcement activities.

The "We Ain't Buying It" campaign urges consumers to redirect their spending towards "small, local, or with businesses affirming our humanity" during the boycott period. The organizers believe that even a marginal reduction in sales figures during this crucial retail week could deliver a powerful message to corporations, compelling them to re-evaluate their practices and demonstrate a stronger commitment to ethical conduct.

Historical Context: Previous Boycotts

This is not the first instance of Home Depot facing significant consumer backlash this year. In July, the company was subject to a boycott organized by The People’s Union, stemming from its decision in March to quietly remove its diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) page from its official website. This prior incident indicates a growing sensitivity among consumers to corporate social responsibility and a willingness to leverage their purchasing power to influence corporate behavior.

A Broader Trend: Consumer Activism in Retail

The boycotts against Home Depot are indicative of a broader and accelerating trend in American consumer behavior: an increasing propensity to boycott companies amidst heightened political and social tensions. Beyond Home Depot, several other major retailers, including Target, Walmart, Lowe's, and Amazon, have also experienced consumer boycotts this year, each posing a distinct threat to their sales growth and brand reputation.

A recent survey by LendingTree sheds light on the evolving landscape of consumer activism:

• Approximately 45% of Americans reported that they sometimes research a company’s values or beliefs before making a purchase.
• A significant 31% of Americans have actively boycotted a business due to various reasons, including perceived discrimination, political donations or affiliations, or religious messaging and practices.
• When considering targets for boycotts, 37% would more likely boycott a large corporation, while only 7% would boycott a small business, and 28% would boycott both.
• Moreover, roughly 45% of Americans are more inclined to support businesses that actively promote Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), whereas 21% reported being less likely to do so.

Matt Schulz, LendingTree's chief consumer finance analyst, emphasized the peril faced by companies that underestimate the influence of politics on consumer choices. He noted that potential customers are attentively monitoring corporate messaging and actions. Schulz further advised that companies should be prepared to adopt public stances on significant issues, despite the inherent risk of alienating some customers. While a bold stance might displease certain segments of the consumer base, it is equally likely to strengthen loyalty among others who resonate with the company's stated values. This suggests a strategic imperative for corporations to carefully consider their social and political alignments, balancing potential losses against the opportunity to cultivate deeper brand affinity.

In conclusion, Home Depot's path through the upcoming holiday season is fraught with challenges, from pre-existing economic headwinds to a targeted, high-profile boycott. The confluence of these factors not only threatens immediate sales but also serves as a potent reminder of the growing power of consumer activism and the evolving expectations placed upon large corporations in today's socially conscious market. The outcome of the "We Ain't Buying It" boycott will undoubtedly offer crucial insights into the enduring impact of ethical considerations on retail performance.