Dogecoin: Is the Bull Run Ending? Urgent Analyst Warning

The volatile world of cryptocurrency often sees rapid shifts in market sentiment and price action. Recently, a prominent crypto analyst, VisionPulsed, has issued a stark warning regarding Dogecoin (DOGE), suggesting that its window for a significant, cycle-defining advance is rapidly narrowing. This critical assessment places Dogecoin’s fate firmly in the hands of Bitcoin (BTC)’s immediate market performance, particularly throughout November.

The Narrowing Window for Dogecoin's Rally

VisionPulsed's analysis, shared in a recent video, emphasizes the urgency of Dogecoin’s current position. He contends that if Dogecoin fails to initiate a substantial upward pivot in November, the prevailing bullish setup could collapse, shifting the market conversation towards considerable downside risk extending into 2026. This perspective underscores a critical juncture for the popular meme coin, suggesting that time is of the essence for investors hoping for a continuation of its bull run.

Bitcoin's Pivotal Role: The $103,000 Threshold

At the heart of Dogecoin's prognosis lies Bitcoin's weekly moving average. According to VisionPulsed, Bitcoin's ability to maintain a position above this key technical indicator will largely dictate Dogecoin's trajectory. Specifically, he highlighted a crucial price point: "By the end of the week, we need to see Bitcoin back over $103,000–$104,000." A successful weekly close above this range could potentially open the door for a Dogecoin rally. Conversely, a decisive close below $102,000, or even $100,000, would serve as a primary confirmation of an impending bear market, signaling a perilous environment for altcoins like Dogecoin.

Immediate Reversal: A Must for Dogecoin's Survival

The analyst's outlook on Dogecoin is deeply rooted in a broader evaluation of the overall cryptocurrency market structure and cross-asset momentum. VisionPulsed observed that the "top-10 dominance" basket, excluding stablecoins, has effectively "fully retraced the alt season from 2021." While reaching the upper boundary of this multi-year channel doesn't inherently signify a market top, it certainly highlights the advanced maturity of the current market advance. This context is crucial for understanding the heightened risk associated with Dogecoin, as it operates within a market that has already re-tested a historically significant boundary.

Decoding Technical Indicators: Supertrend and MACD

Beyond the weekly moving average, VisionPulsed integrates other technical signals into his analysis. He pointed to a 'supertrend' indicator that, at present, mirrors a situation observed in March, where Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below the indicator but did not sustain a close beneath it, thus averting a formal sell signal. This contrasts sharply with 2021, when confirmed closes below the same supertrend tool consistently provided unambiguous sell signals. This distinction is vital because Dogecoin's characteristic high-beta behavior, meaning its price movements are often amplified relative to Bitcoin, tends to compress the timelines for both upward surges and downward corrections. Any definitive break and sustained close below Bitcoin's moving average would effectively erase the already tight window for a Dogecoin impulse rally.

Furthermore, the analyst noted that current momentum indicators are "so bearish that it's screaming the end of the market cycle is near," even though the monthly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has not yet crossed downwards. This lag in higher-timeframe oscillators, he suggests, might still allow for a "very little rally," a phenomenon that in previous cycles has still accommodated outsized moves for certain altcoins.

The Calendar Overlay: November's Decisive Role

The temporal aspect plays a critical role in VisionPulsed's forecast. He argued that throughout the current bull market cycle, "every time we've bounced off the moving average, we've broken the prior high." This historical pattern forms the conditional basis for his argument: if this trend persists and Bitcoin successfully reclaims the critical level by the weekly close, a final push for Dogecoin remains a possibility. However, he adamantly refused to extend this timeline beyond the immediate future. "I would argue that if we don't actually go back up in November, it's probably not happening," he stated, underlining the urgency.

VisionPulsed explored a scenario where Dogecoin might peak in January, but he stressed that the mathematical probabilities for such an outcome are rapidly diminishing unless upside momentum begins immediately. "Eighty-one days from now would be January… it's starting to get to the point where it's almost unachievable because you don't want to keep stretching this out to January, February, March. At some point, you have to say it's not happening." His firm stance against "moving the goalposts" defines his base case: the bullish thesis for Dogecoin can only survive if November sees a definitive directional turn upwards.

Pattern Analysis: Head-and-Shoulders and "The Pig"

From a chart pattern perspective, the analyst identified a head-and-shoulders-like structure forming on Dogecoin's charts, a traditionally bearish reversal pattern. He also introduced a vivid downside marker he has previously employed in his updates, referring to "that little pig is down here," which labels a potential capitulation zone for Dogecoin in the range of $0.05 to $0.06. This "pig" scenario, he clarified, "only is in play once Bitcoin is below that moving average." In such a case, Dogecoin's primary target would quickly revert to the "five to six cents" range. For Bitcoin itself, he framed a bear-market base case potentially settling between $40,000 and $50,000, operating on the assumption that both upside and downside retracements are becoming less severe compared to prior cycles, implying a 65% to 70% correction rather than the previous 77%.

The Dogecoin Decision Tree: Two Futures

VisionPulsed presented a clear decision tree for Dogecoin's immediate future. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $103,000–$104,000 mark by the weekly close and confirms its position above the moving average, the window for a Dogecoin rally reopens, potentially leading to a late Q4 to January run. However, should Bitcoin close below approximately $102,000 and continue to show weakness, it would signal "bear market time." In this scenario, Dogecoin would likely gravitate towards "the pig at 5 cents," with a high probability that "it might even break the pig honestly," depending on the severity and duration of Bitcoin’s broader drawdown. As of press time, DOGE traded at $0.16297, hovering precariously at this critical juncture.

In conclusion, the coming weeks represent a pivotal period for Dogecoin. The nuanced interplay between Dogecoin's high-beta nature and Bitcoin's ability to hold crucial support levels means that a failure to act decisively in November could mark a definitive end to its current bull market aspirations, paving the way for a more challenging outlook in the years ahead. Investors are urged to observe Bitcoin's weekly performance closely, as it holds the key to Dogecoin's immediate future.