XRP's Future: CTO Exit vs. Bullish $4.70 Target & ETF Hopes

XRP concluded the third quarter of 2025 with an impressive performance, registering a 31% rally. The digital asset ascended from approximately $2.20 in July to $2.92 by the close of September, marking one of its most significant quarterly gains in recent years. This robust quarterly candle represented the first decisive close above a multi-year long-term resistance level since 2017, generating considerable optimism among investors and analysts. Many now speculate that XRP could be poised to replicate its historic breakout patterns, potentially initiating a substantial upward trend.

Prominent technical analysts, such as Mikybull, highlight XRP's multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders breakout pattern. This specific chart formation is often considered a strong bullish indicator, suggesting substantial upside potential. According to this analysis, XRP is positioned for a near-term ascent towards a target of $4.70, with projections indicating even higher valuations over the broader market cycle. This technical outlook provides a compelling argument for continued investor interest and potential capital appreciation.

CTO Departure Introduces Nuance to XRP's Trajectory

Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment stemming from technical indicators, a degree of caution has permeated the XRP community following the unexpected departure of Ripple's Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz. Schwartz's exit has created a divergence in interpretations among market participants. Some investors view his final public remarks as a subtle affirmation of XRP's long-term potential to establish itself as a formidable competitor to established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. They suggest his departure, while significant, does not undermine the fundamental strengths or future prospects of the XRP ledger.

Conversely, another segment of the investor base interprets Schwartz's departure as a potential signal to exercise caution and consider securing profits, especially after the token's strong rally in Q3. This group, including influential early investors on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) such as Crypto Bitlord, has publicly issued "time to sell" calls. Their rationale often centers on the belief that the recent surge could precede a period of increased volatility, particularly before the anticipated influx of institutional capital driven by exchange-traded fund (ETF) approvals materializes. This dichotomy in investor sentiment underscores the complex interplay of technical analysis, fundamental developments, and market psychology.

ETF Hopes: A Powerful Catalyst Against Selling Pressure

One of the most potent bullish drivers for XRP remains the accelerating probability of a spot XRP ETF approval by regulatory bodies. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is actively reviewing multiple applications for such products, including a notable filing from Grayscale. Crucial decision deadlines for these applications are anticipated to fall between October 18 and November 14, making this period a critical window for XRP's market trajectory.

Prediction markets currently assign over a 99% probability to the approval of an XRP spot ETF. This exceptionally high likelihood suggests that institutional capital could soon flow into the digital asset, potentially in significant volumes. Analysts draw parallels to the profound impact observed with the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year, which triggered substantial price surges due to increased liquidity and broader accessibility for institutional investors. Should an XRP ETF receive a green light, projections suggest XRP's value could ascend to between $20 and $30 by 2026, transforming the investment landscape for the asset.

Further supporting a bullish outlook, on-chain data provides compelling evidence of accumulation. Exchange reserves of XRP have been consistently decreasing, indicating that a significant portion of tokens are being moved off centralized exchanges into self-custody wallets and staking pools. This trend typically signals long-term holding intentions rather than immediate selling pressure. Moreover, open interest in XRP derivatives has grown to an impressive $1.4 billion, reflecting heightened speculative activity. However, it is important to note that options activity remains relatively thin, which could leave leveraged long positions vulnerable to sudden corrections if key resistance levels prove difficult to overcome.

Current Technical Landscape: Navigating Key Levels

As of current market conditions, XRP is trading around $2.94. The asset has successfully maintained its position above the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.50, a widely watched indicator for long-term trend strength. However, it faces immediate resistance at the 50-day SMA, located at approximately $2.96. Key support levels are identified within the $2.70–$2.80 range. A failure to hold these support levels could expose XRP to deeper downside risk, potentially pushing prices back towards the $2.50 mark.

Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reside at a neutral reading of 47. This neutral stance suggests that there is ample room for further accumulation without the asset being considered overbought, thereby supporting the potential for a sustained upward movement. Should XRP successfully close multiple consecutive days above the $2.96 resistance level, technical analysts anticipate this would confirm the initiation of a new rally. The initial short-term target would then be $3.65, followed by the more ambitious $4.70 as the next major resistance point. Conversely, if XRP fails to decisively break this resistance, October could see the asset enter a period of consolidation, with November emerging as the next potential window for a breakout attempt. The interplay of these technical levels, combined with fundamental drivers and shifting market sentiment, will dictate XRP's price action in the coming months.