XRP Price: Analyst Predicts 2017-Like Bull Run, $10.47 Target

A prominent cryptocurrency analyst, known as Dark Defender, has recently presented a compelling argument suggesting that XRP's current monthly structural momentum strikingly mirrors the high-velocity regime observed prior to its explosive rally between 2017 and 2018. This analysis posits that following a significant breakout last year, a new impulsive wave for XRP is now actively underway. Through a meticulously detailed thread accompanying a multi-year monthly chart, Dark Defender advocates for segmenting XRP's historical performance into three distinct phases: the “Left – Middle – Right.” This framework contrasts the impulsive setup of 2017, a corrective deviation in 2021, and what he identifies as the current, reinvigorated continuation phase.

Understanding the 2017 Impulsive Wave: A Blueprint for Growth

Delving into the “Left” side of the chart, Dark Defender elucidates the technical characteristics that defined the 2017 surge, serving as a template for potential future movements. Key indicators during this period included candlesticks consistently closing above preceding highs, the price maintaining a strong position above the Ichimoku Cloud support, an elevated Relative Strength Index (RSI), and monthly closes decisively above a critical exponential moving average (EMA). “XRP experienced an impulsive wave towards the end of 2017. This event triggered a substantial RSI spike accompanied by significant momentum… Both volume and velocity were high, as was the overall momentum,” he noted. He further elaborated that this powerful thrust culminated in a “five-wave” advance, subsequently giving way to a multi-month triangle consolidation pattern. Importantly, during this consolidation, the RSI, while flattening, consistently remained above his smoothed baseline, a signal he interprets as a bullish continuation rather than an indicator of market exhaustion.

The Corrective Detour: XRP's 2021 Performance

The “Middle” section of the chart, centered around 2021, represents a stark contrast to the impulsive vigor of 2017. Dark Defender categorizes this period as a corrective A-B structure. This phase commenced with an A-wave decline from the 2018 peak, followed by a B-wave rally that peaked at $1.96. During this time, momentum signatures significantly weakened, and the underlying trend lost its vital structural supports. “Crucially, the structure observed in 2021 was definitively a CORRECTIVE STRUCTURE,” he asserted. The technical evidence supporting this correction was abundant: the price traded consistently below the Ichimoku Clouds, signaling a bearish outlook; the developing triangle pattern lacked any decisive candlestick closes above the crucial orange resistance level; and the exponential moving average, a key support, was breached to the downside. Furthermore, Dark Defender highlighted the external factor of the ongoing lawsuit against Ripple, contextualizing the technical patterns within a period of heightened headline risk and compromised trend quality, which suppressed investor confidence and market performance.

The Dawn of a New Impulsive Regime: 2024-2025 Outlook

The “Right-hand” panel of Dark Defender's analysis shifts to a decidedly bullish perspective, marking what he believes to be a re-establishment of an impulsive regime. He points to a “CRUCIAL BREAK” identified on November 10, 2024, which he contends preceded a sustained upside extension. “We had previously announced a CRUCIAL BREAK… indicating that XRP was poised to break its All-Time High (ATH). Indeed, this occurred just one day before the extensive breakout,” he stated, referencing his earlier commentary. The subsequent advance, according to his analysis, has fulfilled the necessary checklist for trend validation. This includes monthly Heikin Ashi candles consistently closing above previous highs, the price successfully reclaiming and holding above the Ichimoku Cloud, a series of closes above the red EMA baseline, and a resurgent RSI profile that he explicitly draws parallels with the 2017 impulse. He cautions, however, that the “IMPULSIVE WAVE structure has not yet been finalized,” suggesting that a February 2025 pullback was merely a corrective movement within a larger, ongoing advance, rather than an indication of its conclusion.

Technical Confluence: A Detailed Comparison

The comparative anatomy of Dark Defender's thesis heavily relies on the consistent alignment of signals across various timeframes and technical tools. Both in 2017 and in the current period, candlesticks have decisively closed above resistance within triangle formations, rather than faltering at the boundaries. The price has consistently resided above the Ichimoku Cloud support, contrasting sharply with its position beneath it during the corrective phase. Furthermore, the moving-average “red line” has transitioned to acting as dynamic support, a crucial shift from its role as resistance. Concurrently, the RSI sequence, which had degraded in 2021—characterized by “medium strength… followed by low strength”—has now reversed. It has returned to what he describes as a “similar high momentum like in 2017, but distinctly absent in 2021.” In summation, the 2017 segment represented an “entirely an impulsive 5 Wave structure,” 2021 was “Corrective and therefore Weak,” and the 2024–2025 period reflects a “NEW IMPULSIVE STRUCTURE” possessing significant continuation potential.

Analyst's Outlook and the Path to a New Era

Dark Defender's overall tone remains unequivocally constructive regarding XRP's future trajectory. “Considering all the aforementioned facts, my bullish stance on XRP and the broader blockchain ecosystem remains unwavering,” he affirmed. “We are on the cusp of entering a new era… and I firmly believe that the future of Ripple and XRP is exceptionally bright, guided by the lodestar, Polaris.” He concludes his analysis with his characteristic emphasis on maintaining a positive mindset, yet the fundamental strength of his argument rests on the clear checklist of trend-confirmation items now evident on the monthly chart.

Whether XRP will ultimately replicate the sheer magnitude of its 2017 movement will largely depend on the sustained persistence of these identified signals. This includes consistent monthly closes above key levels, the enduring sustainability of momentum above the Ichimoku Cloud, and the continued respect for the EMA baseline. Dark Defender’s comparative framework, however, provides an explicit and compelling narrative: the specific market conditions that previously fostered XRP’s most explosive phase are, in his considered reading, firmly back in play.

While the analyst opted not to disclose an explicit price target in his most recent update, he had previously outlined one earlier this month. In an October 2 post on X, Dark Defender confidently stated, “We were accurate regarding XRP. RSI weekly break, weekly trend break, targets are clearly defined. Nothing can impede what is approaching,” while sharing a projected target of $10.47. This target is presented as the culmination of XRP's anticipated wave-5 structure. At the time of this report, XRP was trading at $2.80.