SwissBorg's Alex Fazel: Expect 'Biggest Altcoin Cycle of Our Lifetime'

Alex Fazel, a founding partner at SwissBorg, posits that the cryptocurrency market is on the cusp of entering an unprecedented multi-year bull phase, distinctly different from previous cycles. He envisions a period capable of generating "generational wealth" for investors, outlining what he terms an "alt season bible" slated for 2025–2026. This comprehensive outlook was shared during an expansive interview with Altcoin Daily, providing a nuanced perspective on the market's future trajectory.

Operating within a probabilistic framework, Fazel contends that a unique convergence of factors is currently at play. These include a robust and strengthening global business cycle, the anticipation of increasingly accommodative monetary policies, and simultaneous technological accelerations within the crypto/Web3 ecosystem and artificial intelligence. He draws parallels between these confluence of tailwinds and those that fueled the equity market's "recovery cycle" following the dot-com bubble. Fazel emphatically stated, "I really want to prove to everyone that this is the biggest cycle and the biggest chance for everyone to generate generational wealth," underscoring that his projections are rooted in probabilities rather than absolute certainties, urging investors to adopt a similar mindset.

The Anticipated Historic 2025–26 Altcoin Cycle

Fazel's overarching market structure thesis is anchored in a well-established rotation dynamic observed in previous cycles. This typically begins with Bitcoin asserting leadership, followed by Ethereum and the broader cohort of top-capitalization cryptocurrencies. Subsequently, market momentum tends to disperse into mid- and small-cap altcoins as Bitcoin's dominance potentially wanes. He firmly asserts that the current market advance, despite its significant gains, still lacks the characteristic "euphoria stage"—a late-cycle condition that he considers statistically common and, crucially, still forthcoming. "It is extremely rare… to have a bull cycle without euphoria," he remarked, also noting that the anticipated extended bull run would be punctuated by sizable, albeit temporary, drawdowns. These corrections, he believes, will not invalidate the overarching bullish trend. "We won’t see a long bear market anymore… We’re going to see a very extended bull run but with really big corrections along the way," Fazel predicted, advocating for a long-term perspective.

To appropriately gauge the magnitude of this impending cycle, Fazel prefers to analyze the total cryptocurrency market capitalization rather than relying on precise date-based predictions. He referenced prior expansions: a remarkable approximately 45x growth from 2014 to 2017, and another significant ~27x increase leading into 2021. From these historical precedents, he conservatively infers that a 2x–3x increase from the last cycle's peak of roughly $3 trillion would imply a total market capitalization of $6–$9 trillion before the current bull run reaches its exhaustion point. This projected market cap, alongside the still-missing euphoria phase, constitutes one of his primary exit heuristics for investors. "Rather than just thinking about how long, look at how high," he advised, emphasizing value over time.

Key Sector Leadership and The Role of Capital Flows

Regarding sector leadership, Fazel's team meticulously compiled a year-over-year basket of tokens (from September 2024 to early September 2025) that demonstrated sustained outperformance against Bitcoin. This analytical approach was designed to filter out transient "pump-and-dump noise" and identify genuine leaders. The resulting list he highlighted was predominantly composed of Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and exchange-adjacent assets. Notable mentions included Virtuals (AI-agent) with a staggering 20x return, Hyperliquid’s HYPE at 7x, Sui and its DeepBook DEX as strong performers, Curve and Ethena Labs showing 2.5x–3x growth, SwissBorg’s native BORG token at approximately 2.5x, and Raydium. His conclusion was unequivocal: "DeFi is the best sector to invest in." He further elaborated that exchange tokens have consistently been among the most resilient leaders since 2018, primarily due to their clear product-market fit in facilitating speculation and generating consistent fees.

Fazel directly linked these impressive returns to an explicit capital-flows mechanism: token buybacks. He presented evidence, in his view, of a positive correlation between top-performing tokens and the existence of sustained buyback programs. He drew a compelling parallel to traditional equities, where many of the cycle's strongest stocks, including prominent AI bellwethers, have announced and executed large, continuous share repurchases. However, he also issued a critical caution: buybacks, no matter how substantial, can be overwhelmed by inflationary token emissions. "If you have $20 million buying the token, but an airdrop is emitting $53 million, do the math," he illustrated, citing this dynamic to explain why certain well-known tokens underperformed despite generating revenue.

Advanced Considerations for Altcoin Investments

Building upon these insights, Fazel proposed a practical four-quadrant framework for evaluating token "pumpamentals," which are fundamental drivers for price appreciation. These quadrants include:

• Clear Utility: The token must possess a tangible use case that investors perceive as genuinely valuable.
• Loyalty Mechanisms: Systems that encourage long-term holding, such as token locking or staking, are crucial.
• Strong, Sustainable, and Scalable Buybacks: Consistent and growth-oriented buyback programs are vital for maintaining token value.
• Burns or Float Reduction: Mechanisms that permanently reduce the circulating supply of tokens.

He argued that traditional Layer-1 blockchains typically only fulfill the first two criteria and often still rely on inflationary issuance to provide staking yields. In stark contrast, exchange tokens and many DeFi assets are uniquely positioned to satisfy all four quadrants, especially if their fee-linked buyback mechanisms are hard-wired, ongoing, and diversified across multiple product lines, creating a robust deflationary pressure.

Fazel also highlighted the increasing prominence of a new buyer cohort: Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs). These are public companies that strategically raise capital in fiat currencies and then accumulate cryptocurrencies for their corporate balance sheets. He observed that this unique structure can simultaneously "pump the stock and the token" of the company. He cited high-profile examples involving Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring that balance-sheet accumulation not only creates sustained buying pressure but also effectively removes supply from the market, reducing potential selling pressure. More broadly, he frames the current market environment as a "supercycle" moment because retail investors, institutional giants, and now corporate treasuries are converging on crypto exposure. This interest initially focuses on BTC and ETH but progressively extends further out along the risk curve as market confidence grows and understanding deepens.

SwissBorg's Operational Playbook and Risk Management Philosophy

Many aspects of Fazel's strategic playbook are actively implemented within SwissBorg itself. He revealed that the company, established in 2017 and now boasting over 300 employees and approximately $2.4 billion in assets under management, has adopted a robust 50% revenue-to-buyback policy for its native BORG token. Furthermore, SwissBorg has intentionally delisted its token from centralized exchanges. This strategic move aims to "control supply" and concentrate liquidity and trading volume directly within its proprietary in-app ecosystem, thereby enhancing the token's utility and demand within its platform.

Throughout the interview, Fazel consistently returned to the critical theme of risk management. He strongly urged investors to cultivate probabilistic thinking and to be prepared to "divorce" underperforming tokens—those lacking genuine revenues or built upon unsound token economics. He also addressed prevalent fears of dilution stemming from the proliferation of new tokens, contending that a minuscule fraction of these ever achieve meaningful market capitalization. "Out of all these coins… 0.00001% have a market cap above $1 million," he stated, arguing that the sheer volume of microcap launches should not deter investors from identifying and participating in an altseason driven by larger, revenue-generating projects.

While his timeline remains conditional and subject to market dynamics, Fazel's conviction in the underlying market structure is unwavering. He anticipates that Bitcoin could experience 30%–40% pullbacks without derailing the broader, longer-term advance. He also believes the traditional equity backdrop continues to be "AI-led" rather than nearing a blow-off top, suggesting sustained economic tailwinds. Furthermore, he contends that crypto adoption curves move at a significantly faster pace than Web2 technologies, primarily because they leverage and build upon the existing global internet infrastructure. As for a specific headline Bitcoin target, he refrained from offering precise figures but hinted that the ultimate ceiling is considerably higher than many casual forecasts imply. "Almost $200k for Bitcoin seems too small," he mused at one point, before skillfully pivoting back to the importance of total-market metrics and the eventual presence—or absence—of broad-based euphoria as key indicators of the cycle's maturity.

At the time of this publication, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $4.2 trillion, underscoring the significant growth already witnessed in the sector.