Dogecoin's Next Surge: Analyst Sees 2021 Echoes, Bull Run Ahead?

A prominent analyst, known as Cantonese Cat, posits that Dogecoin (DOGE) is structurally positioned for a significant late-cycle surge, mirroring patterns observed in previous cryptocurrency bull markets. This analysis challenges the notion that the current crypto cycle has concluded, insisting that DOGE’s characteristic decisive move has not yet materialized. In a comprehensive market review published on October 19th, the analyst meticulously connects Dogecoin’s present setup to broader liquidity cycles and inter-market indicators. However, the core of his thesis on DOGE remains straightforward: the market has not yet witnessed the definitive Dogecoin breakout that, in earlier cycles, consistently coincided with Bitcoin’s final phase of acceleration.

The Unseen Surge: Echoes of Past Cycles

Cantonese Cat highlights a recurring dynamic where, as Bitcoin (BTC) experiences upward momentum, Dogecoin simultaneously forms a robust base. He observes that DOGE’s participation during Bitcoin’s recent ascent has been marginal, suggesting that its primary move is still pending. The critical trigger, from his perspective, is explicit and highly anticipated. “Once you have Doge breaking into all-time high… that can happen in a hurry… once you have Doge breaking [its] all-time high, generally that’s when the acceleration phase of Bitcoin begins,” he articulated. This perceived relationship is framed not as an anomaly but as a consistent feature of market cycle dynamics. The analyst’s conviction that the broader crypto cycle has not yet concluded is further solidified by the absence of a Dogecoin all-time-high breakout, which he views as a crucial missing piece in the narrative of a completed bull run.

Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment

While linking his assessment to the overarching sentiment of risk appetite and global liquidity, Cantonese Cat frequently narrows his focus to DOGE itself. He describes recent price action as a "wear-you-out phase," marked by a sharp deleveraging event that likely hardened bearish sentiment. Crucially, he argues that this period of consolidation and bearish pressure has not invalidated the coin’s longer-term bullish structure. The confluence of "the deleveraging event" and the continued absence of a "breakout into all-time high" is, in his view, consistent with how earlier cycles have unfolded, typically preceding rapid upside movements after a period of base-building.

Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Rotation

A significant aspect of Cantonese Cat’s conviction stems from his interpretation of Bitcoin dominance and the timing of altcoin rotations. He suggests that Bitcoin dominance, having reigned for “2022, 2023, 2024, almost the bulk of 2025,” now appears “a little bit tired,” exhibiting sideways movement for approximately a year. Within his analytical framework, a downturn in Bitcoin dominance would not necessarily signal weakness for Bitcoin itself. Instead, it would imply a period of pronounced outperformance by altcoins, indicating a shift in capital flows within the crypto ecosystem.

He strongly refutes the “this time is different” narrative, a common pitfall in market analysis. “If we end the cycle right here… this will be the very first time ever that we haven’t had any rotations from Bitcoin to altcoins and we haven’t had that parabolic phase—and this time would be different,” he explains, emphasizing the unlikelihood of such a divergence from historical patterns. His unwavering stance is rooted in the belief that “things are still playing out” according to established cycle dynamics.

The Velocity of Dogecoin Breakouts

The analyst’s Dogecoin-specific takeaway is that the market’s recent volatility and stress do not negate the historical sequencing he anticipates. He stresses that Dogecoin’s signature parabolic move typically arrives after extended periods of compression, often unfolding within a remarkably condensed timeframe. “Last time [it] only happened within like a couple months and next thing you know it’s just like whoa what happened,” he recounts, serving as a cautionary reminder that DOGE’s acceleration window can open swiftly once critical resistance levels are breached. This pattern recognition forms the bedrock of his counter-argument against prevailing pessimism. He acknowledges that “A lot of people are just extremely bitter about Doge because this cycle has been wearing everybody out,” yet he interprets this widespread sentiment as a typical precursor to pre-breakout conditions, rather than evidence of a fundamental structural failure.

Cantonese Cat responsibly reiterates that his analysis does not constitute financial advice and acknowledges the possibility of his projections being incorrect. Nevertheless, his argument consistently returns to a central premise: Dogecoin has yet to deliver the hallmark event indicative of a completed market cycle. Until such an event occurs – or definitively fails to materialise – he views the coin as being in a “coiled” state, rather than one of conclusion. “The reality [is], I just don’t really think that the cycle is different… We haven’t had that [DOGE] breakout,” he concludes, encapsulating the risk-on bias that underpins his perspective. Essentially, for traders strategizing around late-cycle opportunities, his message is clear: the pivotal “Dogecoin moment” remains on the horizon, suggesting that current bearish stances might be premature.

Strategic Price Projections for Dogecoin

Although the October 19th video does not present fresh DOGE price targets, the analyst references levels established in his prior work. In those earlier analyses, he posited that DOGE could be entering Wave 3 of an Elliott Wave structure, particularly after successfully reclaiming the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of its previous impulse, positioned around $0.20088. From this framework, he identified several key upside projections:

• $0.48: Representing the 1.0 extension.
• $0.89: Corresponding to the 1.272 extension.
• $1.23: Aligned with the 1.414 extension.
• $1.96: Marking the 1.618 extension.

In additional commentary, he has also suggested potential outcomes exceeding $2.00 if a breakout gains significant acceleration. Furthermore, in a more speculative scenario, likely from a separate video, he confidently stated, “I’m going to lay down the case as to why I think DOGE can hit $4 this cycle…”. At the time of the initial article’s publication, DOGE was trading at $0.201, underscoring the substantial upside potential outlined in these projections.