Bitcoin Price Outlook: Trader Mayne Warns of $98K Liquidity Sweep

Prominent cryptocurrency analyst, known as Trader Mayne, has issued a significant cautionary note regarding Bitcoin's immediate price trajectory. He postulates that the leading digital asset may be positioned for a more pronounced downturn before it can re-establish its broader upward trend towards the end of the year. Central to his analysis is the identification of a crucial "$98,000 weekly liquidity level" which, according to Mayne, remains uncollected below current price levels and could become a primary target as early as October.

Analyzing Bitcoin's Immediate Future: Two Key Scenarios

In a comprehensive video analysis released on September 30, titled "Did Bitcoin Just Top? The Signal Everyone's Ignoring…," Mayne meticulously outlined a dual-track playbook for Bitcoin's anticipated price action. The first scenario involves a tactical long position predicated on a lower-timeframe liquidity sweep, which could potentially precede a more substantial market correction. Conversely, should this initial setup fail to materialize, Mayne suggests a decisive flush that could push Bitcoin prices down to the $98,000 level before a robust fourth-quarter continuation higher. This strategic approach underscores the nuanced volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets.

Summarizing his thesis via X, Mayne stated, "TLDR — I think we are due for a larger correction soon, to take out the $98k weekly liquidity level." He further elaborated that while "there may be a short term long set up that precedes that correction," his overarching expectation remains for "higher prices in Q4." Consequently, he views an "early dump…a buying opp," signaling a strategic opportunity for investors prepared to capitalize on potential short-term weakness.

Market Structure and Timeframe Analysis

Delving into Bitcoin's underlying market structure, Mayne observed that the asset has largely adhered to his recently proposed roadmap: an initial upward push, followed by a retest, and now navigating a critical decision point. This juncture is defined by the convergence of higher-timeframe "breaker" levels and intraweek lows. He noted, "We had the daily flip bullish on Bitcoin, right? We closed above the breaker," indicating a constructive daily chart. Similarly, the monthly chart also presents a bullish disposition. However, a key divergence emerges with the weekly chart, which, in his technical assessment, "is technically bearish." This disparity between timeframes necessitates a meticulous approach to trading strategy.

To reconcile these conflicting signals across different timeframes, Mayne indicated his reliance on the four-hour (H4) chart to synchronize his next trading moves. "With two higher timeframes leaning bullish against a soft weekly, he is looking to the four-hour chart to synchronize the next trade. If the H4 is bullish, which it is, if I take a setup on some sort of liquidity run on the H4, that’s going to sync me back up with the daily at least," he explained, highlighting the importance of aligning tactical entries with broader market trends.

Tactical Entry and Invalidation Strategy

From Mayne's perspective, the immediate trigger for a trading opportunity involves a sweep of local lows. This strategy is designed to enable a tighter risk management approach, as opposed to a broader retest with a wider invalidation range. "I would like to see one of these H4 little liquidity pools here get run and and then…that becomes my setup and my stop is tight. I have clear targets over here," he articulated, emphasizing precision in trade execution.

He specifically identified "Monday's low" as a relevant pivot point. Should this level be breached, it could trigger a mean-reversion long position targeting a nearby daily bearish breaker and previous highs. Mayne mused, "Maybe we even run this first, right? And then get the pullback. But either way, that’s what I’m looking for on Bitcoin here," illustrating the dynamic nature of his trading plan. Crucially, Mayne underscored that invalidation is a non-negotiable aspect of his strategy. If Bitcoin's price decisively breaches the intraweek baseline on a closing basis, he would promptly abandon any long positions and prepare for a larger market washout. "If Bitcoin gets an H4 close below here…we’ll probably nuke to $98,000," he warned, directly linking a failure below Monday's low and the range floor to the potential activation of the $98,000 clean-out he believes the weekly chart still indicates.

Ethereum's Parallel Trajectory

Mayne further mapped Ethereum's structural behavior as analogous to Bitcoin's, observing similar trends and conditional setups. He noted that Ethereum's daily and 12-hour trends have transitioned to a constructive stance, moving into a weekly order block. However, similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum also demands a precise entry strategy, ideally facilitated by a low-timeframe liquidity grab. "ETH very similar, right? We had the daily flip bullish…we’ve got the breaker. It’s retesting this order block here," he stated.

He described an H12/weekly combination where a "weekly SFP" (swing failure pattern) and "structure break" are currently in motion. Despite these potentially bullish indicators, Mayne stressed that determining the optimal stop-loss placement remains "tricky" unless a sweep of Monday's low offers a clearer, more precise trigger. "To me, ETH looks good here to fill in some of this…assuming we can get that setup," he added, reiterating the conditional nature of his market expectations for both major cryptocurrencies.

Long-Term Outlook: Q4 Bullishness Despite Short-Term Volatility

The conditional nature of Mayne's overall plan is paramount. He maintains a willingness to attempt continuation longs into adjacent resistance levels, but only if the market executes the specific liquidity sweep that allows for a tightly managed invalidation. Absent this precise market action, he anticipates an initial downside movement. "If we don’t get this little setup to here, I think there’s a very strong chance that we’re going to, you know, at least do one of these, right? and nuke this liquidity here and then get the real move up," he posited.

He reiterated the critical timeframe check: "If we get an H4 close below Monday’s low [near $111,000]…all bets are off and we might actually start the month of October down." Despite these immediate cautions and the potential for short-term volatility, Mayne's macro-tactical stance remains unequivocally bullish for Q4, advocating for a "buy-the-dip" strategy. He consistently framed any early-October weakness as a strategic opportunity rather than the inception of a cyclical top.

"Ultimately, I’m of the mindset that…this dip that may come, whether it’s from right here or after a push higher…is a dip we want to buy ’cause we’re in the endgame here," he confidently asserted. "It’s October, November, December. We’re in Q4… I believe we trade higher in Q4." This outlook suggests a strong conviction in a year-end rally for Bitcoin, despite the potential for intervening price corrections. At the time of the analysis, BTC was trading at $116,238.