The Indian financial landscape is constantly evolving, presenting unique opportunities for discerning investors. In a recent analysis, the Trade Brains Portal has highlighted two promising stocks—one from the burgeoning green energy sector and another from the robust defense industry—each offering a potential upside of over 25%. This recommendation comes at a pivotal time when India is making significant strides in both renewable energy adoption and indigenous defense production, driven by ambitious national initiatives.
India's commitment to a sustainable future is evident in its rapidly expanding renewable energy sector. The nation is actively pursuing a target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, necessitating substantial investments and growth in solar, wind, and other green power sources. Concurrently, the "Make in India" initiative has dramatically boosted the country's defense manufacturing capabilities. Defence production soared to a record Rs 150,590 crore in FY25, with exports reaching an all-time high of Rs 23,622 crore in the same fiscal year. This dual growth narrative forms the backdrop for the recommended stocks. Before delving into these specific recommendations, we'll also briefly recap the market's performance on a recent Friday to understand the broader sentiment.
NTPC Green Energy Ltd (NGEL): Powering a Sustainable Future
- Current Price: Rs 104
- Target Price: Rs 130
- Potential Upside: 25%
- Time Horizon: 12-14 months
Investment Rationale
NTPC Green Energy Ltd. (NGEL) stands as India's premier public sector company in the renewable energy domain, excluding hydropower, measured by operating capacity. It functions as the core strategic vehicle for NTPC's extensive green energy ventures, spearheading the parent company's ambitious goal of achieving 60 GW of renewable energy capacity by FY32 through both organic expansion and strategic acquisitions. NGEL's operational footprint is impressively diversified, encompassing solar power, wind energy, hybrid power solutions, advanced energy storage systems, and pioneering green hydrogen projects. This broad portfolio positions NGEL to capitalize on multiple facets of the renewable energy transition.
Financially, NGEL has demonstrated robust growth. For Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25), the company reported operating revenue of Rs 2,210 crore, marking a significant 12.5% increase from Rs 1,963 crore in FY24. Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) also saw a healthy rise of 19.4% to Rs 2,173 crore. Profit After Tax (PAT) surged by an impressive 38% to Rs 474 crore, reflecting efficient operations and growing profitability. As of June 30, 2025, NGEL's operational assets include 30 solar projects and 4 wind projects, complemented by a substantial development pipeline totaling 9,080 MW, indicating strong future capacity additions.
Recent strategic successes further bolster NGEL's outlook. Its wholly-owned subsidiary, NTPC Renewable Energy Ltd., secured a 500 MW solar power project under SECI’s competitive 2,000 MW ISTS-connected solar auction. The company is also actively bidding for 1,000 MW / 4,000 MWh energy storage systems, underscoring its commitment to comprehensive grid solutions. Moreover, NGEL signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Bihar Industries Department to develop green hydrogen mobility projects, both floating and ground-mounted solar installations, and battery energy storage solutions within the state. A significant win also includes a 1,000 MW solar PV project awarded by Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd.
As of April 2025, NGEL's order book reflects strong future revenue visibility, with 9.8 GW of solar projects, 3.5 GW of hybrid projects, and 0.2 GW of wind projects secured through competitive tariff-based bidding. The first quarter of FY26 continued this positive momentum, with revenue from operations growing 17.6% year-over-year (YoY) to Rs 680.21 crore. Profit Before Tax (PBT) impressively rose 51% YoY to Rs 277.10 crore, and PAT soared 59% YoY to Rs 220.48 crore from Rs 138.61 crore in the corresponding period.
Identified Risk Factors
Despite its robust growth trajectory, NTPC Green Energy faces inherent risks. A primary concern is the potential for cost and schedule overruns across its substantial under-construction capacity, which totals approximately 17.2 GW (including 13.5 GW under NGEL and its subsidiaries, 1.9 GW in Ayana, and 1.8 GW in joint ventures). While the company employs EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) execution models that typically include provisions for liquidated damages, cost escalations for projects yet to be awarded remain a palpable risk. Additionally, the company's reliance on long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with financially weaker state distribution companies (discoms) poses a risk of delayed payments and elevated receivables, which could impact liquidity and working capital management.
Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL): Fortifying National Security
- Current Price: Rs 1,630
- Target Price: Rs 1,995
- Potential Upside: 22.39%
- Time Horizon: 16-24 months
Investment Rationale
Established in 1970, Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) is a pivotal government enterprise under the Ministry of Defence, playing a crucial role in India's strategic defense capabilities. BDL is a leading manufacturer of critical defense equipment, including Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAM), Air-to-Air Missiles (AAM), Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs), Torpedoes, and various allied defense systems. Operating three advanced manufacturing units, BDL’s product portfolio is comprehensive, featuring advanced systems such as the Torpedo Advanced Lightweight, Varunastra, Medium Range Surface-To-Air Missile, Dishani, and Anti-Submarine Warfare Suite, among others.
BDL's financial performance in Q1 FY26 showcased strong operational growth. Revenue from operations increased by a notable 29.7% year-over-year to Rs 247.93 crore, up from Rs 191.17 crore in Q1 FY25. The company also demonstrated impressive margin expansion, with its Profit Before Tax (PBT) margin improving to 6.91% in Q1 FY26, compared to 3.78% in the prior year. Consequently, Profit After Tax (PAT) experienced an astounding jump of 154.11% YoY, reaching Rs 18.35 crore, significantly higher than Rs 7.22 crore in Q1 FY25. BDL has also secured a substantial order for the supply of one ATGM (Anti-Tank Guided Missile) from Armoured Vehicles Nigam Limited (AVNL) valued at Rs 809 crore, with execution planned over three years.
For the full Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25), BDL achieved a production value of Rs 3,767 crore, a robust 45% increase from Rs 2,592 crore in FY24. Sales turnover also saw significant growth, rising 41% to Rs 3,345 crore from Rs 2,369 crore in the previous fiscal year. While PAT stood at Rs 550 crore in FY25, it marked a -10.3% YoY decline primarily due to a one-time provision for an onerous contract amounting to Rs 141.40 crore. Importantly, BDL recorded its highest-ever export figure of Rs 1,270 crore during FY25, representing an exceptional growth of approximately 689% YoY compared to Rs 161 crore in FY24, underscoring its expanding global footprint.
The company's order book remains a strong indicator of future growth. In FY25, BDL received new orders totaling approximately Rs 6,668 crore for various weapon systems, including Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) and the Medium Range Surface to Air Missile (MR-SAM), for the Indian armed forces. This brought the total order book to an impressive Rs 22,814 crore at the end of FY25, which is 6.8 times its FY25 revenue, providing substantial revenue visibility for years to come. BDL further anticipates securing new orders worth Rs 20,000 crore over the next 2-3 years, as several critical defense procurements are in their final stages of finalization.
BDL is also heavily invested in research and development (R&D), spending Rs 222.92 crore on R&D in FY25, which constituted 6.66% of its sales turnover. This is a significant increase from Rs 75.37 crore in FY24, highlighting the company's commitment to innovation and technological advancement. To support its future growth and diversify its manufacturing capabilities, BDL is establishing additional facilities in Ibrahimpatnam (near Hyderabad), Amravati in Maharashtra, and Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh. These facilities are earmarked for the production of advanced Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs), including new-generation missiles, Very Short Range Air Defence Systems (VSHORADs), rockets, and propellants for various ATGMs.
Looking ahead, BDL has ambitious long-term aspirations. By 2030-31, the company aims to achieve a formidable turnover of Rs 10,000 crore, solidifying its position as a premier manufacturer of strategic and tactical defense solutions. Furthermore, by 2029, BDL targets deriving 25% of its annual turnover from export business, with a strategic focus on Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGMs), Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs), Air-to-Air Missiles (AAMs), Underwater Weapons, and Avionics Systems. This aggressive export strategy is designed to reduce reliance on domestic procurement and tap into global defense markets.
Identified Risk Factors
A significant risk factor for BDL is its substantial reliance on the Ministry of Defence (MoD) as its primary customer. This concentration risk exposes the company to potential fluctuations in government procurement policies, changes in defense funding allocations, or shifts in the MoD’s specific requirements. Such dependencies can lead to volatility in order flows and revenue. Additionally, BDL operates within a highly regulated environment, subject to numerous procurement rules, government regulations, and other specific guidelines set by the MoD. Adherence to these complex regulatory frameworks, which can change, adds another layer of operational risk.
Market Recap: Friday, September 19, 2025
On Friday, September 19, 2025, the Indian equity markets largely experienced a negative trading session. The Nifty 50 index commenced trading with a negative bias at 25,410.2, shedding 13.4 points from its preceding close of 25,423.6. Although it briefly touched an intraday high of 25,428.75, the index concluded the session at 25,327.05, registering a decline of 96.55 points, or 0.38%. From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 maintained its position above its crucial 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart, suggesting underlying strength despite the day's dip. Similarly, the BSE Sensex mirrored this bearish opening, starting at 82,946.04, which was 67.92 points lower than its previous close of 83,013.96. It tracked a comparable trajectory to the Nifty 50, eventually closing at 82,626.23, down by 387.73 points, or 0.47%. Momentum indicators for both indices showed moderate strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the Nifty 50 at 63.71 and for the Sensex at 62.36, both comfortably below the overbought threshold of 70. The Bank Nifty Index also ended in negative territory, falling by 268.6 points, or 0.48%, to settle at 55,458.85.
Sectoral performance on Friday presented a mixed picture. Major gains were primarily led by the Nifty PSU Bank Index, which advanced by 93.75 points, or 1.3%, to close at 7,397.75. Notable performers within this sector included Union Bank of India, which rose 2.7%, alongside UCO Bank, Canara Bank, and Indian Overseas Bank, all posting gains of up to 2.4%. The Nifty Energy Index also saw a positive movement, adding 303.65 points, or 0.9%, to conclude at 35,745.75. This surge was significantly boosted by Adani Power Ltd, Adani Total Gas Ltd, and Adani Green Energy Ltd, each climbing by as much as 12.4%. This strong performance followed news that market regulator SEBI had issued a clean chit to the Adani Group and its founder, Gautam Adani, regarding an alleged stock manipulation case. Additionally, the Nifty India Defence Index recorded moderate gains, increasing by 46.65 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 8,318.3.
Conversely, the Nifty Private Bank Index emerged as the primary laggard, closing down by 175.6 points, or 0.7%, at 26,972.4. Key private banking stocks such as ICICI Bank Ltd experienced a fall of 1.4%, while Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd and HDFC Bank Ltd plunged by up to 1.2%. The Nifty Consumer Durables index also contributed to the downtrend, losing 258.85 points, or 0.7%, to close at 39,342. Companies like Cera Sanitaryware Ltd, Titan Company Ltd, Kajaria Ceramics Ltd, and Crompton Greaves Consumer all saw declines of up to 1.3%. Globally, Asian markets generally concluded on a negative note on Friday. China’s Shanghai Composite Index registered a slight dip, down by 11.56 points, or 0.3%, to close at 3,820.08. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index managed a marginal gain of 0.25 points, finishing at 26,545.1. South Korea’s KOSPI Index recorded a decline of 16.06 points, or 0.46%, closing at 3,445.24. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index also moved lower, losing 257.62 points, or 0.57%, to end the day at 45,045.81. Meanwhile, as of 4:50 p.m. IST, US Dow Jones Futures were trading marginally lower at 46,494, down 22 points, or 0.045%. Despite the Friday declines, the Nifty 50 recorded a positive week overall, gaining 0.85%, or 213.6 points, and successfully closing above the 25,300 level.
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The investment views and tips presented by experts, broking houses, or rating agencies on tradebrains.in are solely their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the website or its management. It is crucial for investors to acknowledge that investing in equities inherently carries a risk of financial losses. Therefore, investors must exercise due caution and conduct thorough diligence before making any investment or trading decisions in stocks. Neither Trade Brains Technologies Private Limited nor the author assumes any liability for losses incurred as a direct or indirect result of decisions based on this article. It is strongly advised to consult with a qualified investment advisor before engaging in any investment activity. Trade Brains Portal, operating under the trade name Dailyraven Technologies Private Limited, is a SEBI-registered research analyst (registration number INH000015729). Investments in securities are subject to market risks; please read all related documents carefully before investing. It is important to note that registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM do not in any way guarantee the performance of the intermediary or assure returns to investors.
