Vantagepoint AI: Market Outlook & Forex Trends for Sept 29, 2025

Welcome to the Artificial Intelligence Outlook, where we leverage advanced predictive analytics for comprehensive market analysis, particularly in forex trading. This report, presented by Greg Firman, offers an in-depth Vantagepoint AI market outlook for the week commencing September 29, 2025, providing foresight into key financial instruments.

U.S. Dollar Performance and Federal Reserve Outlook

Our analysis begins with the primary market driver, the U.S. Dollar, as tracked by the USDU ETF. This ETF has historically demonstrated early indications of both dollar weakness and strength. Currently, the dollar has shown a slight positive turn for the month as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve's next policy moves. A critical event this week will be Friday's unemployment number, which is expected to significantly influence whether the Fed considers an October rate cut. Stronger employment data could negate the perceived anomaly of the August figures, potentially leading to upward revisions for previous months. With U.S. GDP growth at 3.8% and steady inflation, a weak unemployment report would severely undermine the dollar. However, Vantagepoint's primary indicators maintain a positive stance. The dollar has traded within a narrow channel this quarter, specifically between 25.71 and 26.62 on the USDU, consistently remaining above its opening price for the entire calendar year's fourth quarter—a period historically characterized by dollar appreciation. While the predicted RSI and neural index suggest a potential downward correction, this would be a normal market adjustment preceding the major employment data release.

Gold: Navigating Dollar Strength and Payroll Data

The strengthening dollar has naturally led to a flattening in gold prices. A new verified resistance high has been established at 3790, a level gold approached closely by week's end despite dollar appreciation. The neural index is showing early signs of a rebound, though the predicted RSI and medium to long-term predicted differences are largely moving sideways. We anticipate gold could face some pressure next week, particularly ahead of the payroll announcement. A robust payroll number would likely act as a "gold killer," exerting significant downward force. Despite a very strong September for gold, the indicators suggest a challenging task for a sustained break above 3790 before the payroll data is released.

Equities: SPY, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Resilience

Equity markets, represented by the SPYs, experienced a challenging week but have demonstrated resilience with a notable retracement. The market accurately touched the T-cross long level at 656.64 before beginning to rise. Contrary to some media narratives, the dollar and equities (S&P 500, NASDAQ) have largely maintained a positive correlation throughout the quarter, with both appreciating. Any significant trouble for stocks is more probable post-payroll announcement. The predicted RSI, having tested the 60-level (a buy signal for a rising RSI), indicates a lack of significant downward momentum. The market has completed its retracement to the T-cross long, and an upward trajectory is now observed. The upcoming week will introduce new quarterly and monthly opening prices, which will be crucial levels for equities to hold above to sustain their bullish trend.

Bitcoin: Seasonal Strength and Key Support

Historically, October is Bitcoin's strongest month, typically leading into year-end gains. After a recent retracement, Bitcoin found strong support at its monthly opening price, forming a "heavy wall" when combined with yearly and quarterly opening prices. While a final sell-off remains a possibility, the question is whether the decline on September 25th, which ended with a positive monthly close, marked the low. Vantagepoint's indicators are currently signaling a potential buying opportunity. We observe a signal forming, indicating next week could present significant trading opportunities, especially given Bitcoin's historical performance in October. We will further assess this in the subsequent outlook, but current indicators suggest buyers may be stepping in.

Oil, Natural Gas, and USO: Rebounding but Vulnerable

Oil prices are experiencing a rebound, with natural gas showing a particularly strong recovery last week. The USO ETF has managed to return to its calendar yearly opening price, though it remains barely positive for the month. Throughout September, shorts on oil proved to be the more profitable strategy, with substantial downside movement. We anticipate a potential extension higher for oil on Monday, which could then present an opportune selling window, as oil, similar to the USD/CAD, is susceptible to Monday-Tuesday reversals. The outlook for October suggests continued opportunities for short positions in oil.

DAX and Euro: Interconnected Pressures and Emerging Signals

For European markets, the DAX exhibits a positive correlation with the Euro. Pressure on the Euro has consequently impacted the DAX, a trend that may persist into next week. However, a weaker payroll number leading to a dollar decline could indirectly boost both the Euro and the DAX. Thus, the DAX is likely to remain under pressure until midweek or week's end. Vantagepoint indicators are, however, beginning to show a buy signal for the DAX. A sustained close above the T-cross long at 4427 would position the DAX favorably for an upward movement.

Volatility Index ($VIXY): A Signal for Equities

Observing the markets through the lens of the VIX reveals a significant insight: the VIX repeatedly failed to breach the predicted moving average (T-cross long) at 33.91. This consistent failure across multiple attempts is not coincidental but a strong indicator. Vantagepoint's software, with its neural index strength and predicted differences, confirms that the VIX is projected to move lower, implying a corresponding upward movement in equity markets. Momentum is actively building to the downside for the VIX, reinforcing this prediction.

Forex Market: Key Pair Analyses

Euro versus U.S. Dollar ($EUR/USD)

The EUR/USD pair is expected to be a focal point next week, with bulls and bears contending around the monthly opening price. While the Euro had a decent month, its quarterly performance has been weaker, remaining below its quarterly opening price for most of the period, with early September's brief surge attributed to Fed-induced movements. Repeated failures to sustain above the quarterly opening suggest a bias for a move lower. This pair may exhibit a "buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact" dynamic, where dollar buying continues until midweek before positions are adjusted ahead of the payroll number. The ADP report this week will be closely watched for early indications regarding the August payroll data. Predicted differences are currently down, but a "reverse check mark" on the predicted RSI and neural index strength serves as a cautionary signal against shorting at current levels. Sustaining below the T-cross long at 1.1736 could extend losses, but a significant Monday dip might present a Tuesday buying opportunity.

U.S. Dollar versus Swiss Franc ($USD/CHF)

The USD/CHF typically shows an inverse correlation to the EUR/USD. For this pair to maintain upward momentum, it must decisively clear and hold above the monthly opening price into Tuesday. The new monthly opening price on Wednesday will also be a key level. Current indicators remain largely bullish. However, the monthly opening price acts as an "invisible resistance/support" that many traders overlook, suggesting the current move could be corrective. A robust push above this level is crucial for sustained gains.

British Pound versus U.S. Dollar ($GBP/USD)

The GBP/USD shares a similar dynamic with the Euro. The Bank of England's increasingly dovish stance, coupled with comments from Fed members suggesting no tariff-induced inflation, implies the Fed might not cut rates as aggressively as anticipated. The pair remains bearish while trading below the T-cross long at 1.3497.

U.S. Dollar versus Japanese Yen ($USD/JPY)

The USD/JPY has benefited from the Fed's cautious stance and limited rate cuts. The pair is approaching a verified resistance high at 150.92, a level that is likely difficult to clear regardless of upcoming data. Despite rallies, the USD/JPY has been negative for the year, opening at 157.28, making selling rallies the preferred strategy. However, continuous improvements in U.S. economic numbers could challenge this. The Bank of Japan finds itself in a challenging position, with verbal interventions repeatedly proving ineffective as the pair nears 150 again. The 150.92 level will be critical to watch next week.

U.S. Dollar versus Canadian Dollar ($USD/CAD)

There is currently limited fundamental justification for buying Canadian dollars, given the lack of progress on trade deals between Canada and the U.S., declining commodity prices like oil, and an absence of new trade initiatives. The USD/CAD has once again rebounded from the "invisible support" of its current monthly opening price. While a new monthly opening price on Wednesday could make it harder for the pair to sustain these gains if it remains elevated, for now, shorting this pair is not advised, apart from a potential corrective move back to the T-cross long at 1.3840. We foresee further upside before such a correction occurs.

Australian Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($AUD/USD) and New Zealand Dollar versus U.S. Dollar ($NZD/USD)

Both the AUD/USD and NZD/USD are experiencing pressure, akin to the Canadian dollar, though they hold stronger fundamental potential due to factors like proximity to China. We are monitoring for signals of a rebound. Specifically, if the short-term predicted moving average crosses above the medium-term predicted moving average midweek in the software, combined with a rising predicted RSI, a long trade could emerge. We anticipate the AUD/USD will move higher post-October. The NZD/USD appears particularly undervalued, in our respectful opinion, despite the Bank of New Zealand's recent rate cuts. While the market might be overreacting, the NZD/USD remains positive for the year. A weak but developing buy signal, supported by a rising neural index strength, suggests buyers are likely to step in soon. Next week promises to be choppy due to the payroll number, but such volatility inherently creates opportunities.

This concludes the Vantage Point AI market outlook for the week of September 29, 2025, offering data-driven insights to navigate the upcoming market dynamics.