A prominent crypto commentator, known as plur daddy (@plur_daddy), has recently shared an intriguing macro thesis that positions both Bitcoin and gold at the forefront of an impending policy shift. His argument centers on the idea that former President Donald Trump's potential efforts to exert greater influence over US monetary policy could unleash a significant wave of liquidity. This, in turn, could weaken the US dollar and compel traditional financial institutions to invest in alternative assets, specifically Bitcoin and gold.
This perspective emerges amidst global discussions concerning the potential use of Russia's immobilized reserves to support new loans for Ukraine, and as gold prices continue to hover near record highs. These developments are shaping a new market environment where Bitcoin's value is increasingly tied to liquidity conditions and institutional acceptance, rather than solely to its halving cycles or a predictable “four-year cycle.”
Trump's Potential Influence on the Federal Reserve
“It's been great being off Twitter… I continue to be long BTC and also significantly sized up my gold position in August. This is driven by my belief that Trump’s efforts to take control of the Fed represent a momentous catalyst, the kind that happens once a decade,” plur daddy stated. He further elaborated, "Once he takes control, it is logical that he will not only cut rates, but engage in some form of yield curve control… The USD will get destroyed as a result.”
The core of his argument is that Bitcoin and gold are uniquely positioned as "more pure beneficiaries of an environment where liquidity is increasing and institutional credibility is undermined.” He suggests that current anxieties about a market peak, typically associated with Bitcoin's halving events, are misplaced. This is because Bitcoin "has been captured by tradfi and is a more pure expression of liquidity conditions,” implying its price movements are now more influenced by broader financial market dynamics than by its internal supply mechanics.
The policy landscape he describes, once speculative, is now a subject of intense debate. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has publicly refuted accusations that the central bank is making politically motivated decisions, even as investors scrutinize new appointments and public pressure from the White House. Powell dismissed claims about the Fed's motives as "cheap shots," maintaining that recent decisions are data-driven. Simultaneously, global policymakers and market strategists are openly debating whether ongoing political interference could push the Fed towards explicit yield-curve control—a method not seen in the US since the 1940s—to manage long-term borrowing costs.
Strategies for Economic Stimulation and Liquidity
In a subsequent discussion, plur daddy proposed a mechanism to lower mortgage rates. This would involve government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increasing their purchases of mortgage bonds. This strategy would be complemented by adjustments to capital requirements and the strategic use of derivatives to manage duration risks. He distinguishes this approach from traditional quantitative easing (QE) by suggesting it shifts spreads through modifying the asset mix rather than directly expanding the central bank's balance sheet.
This argument aligns with broader political incentives, especially leading up to US midterm elections. As he noted, "Markets are forward looking… They have a strong incentive to juice the economy and markets,” although he cautioned that direct stimulus could carry inflation risks. The analytical framework also extends to the Treasury General Account (TGA), which saw a rapid rebuilding in late Q3. Market analysts had warned that an aggressive TGA refill could briefly reduce market liquidity before easing. Crypto traders closely monitor this pattern, given Bitcoin's pronounced sensitivity to changes in dollar system reserves and the balance between bills and reserves. “BTC is hypersensitive to any shift in liquidity conditions, much more so than equities,” the post asserts, echoing previous analysis linking TGA dynamics to risk-asset performance.
Geopolitical Factors and Store of Value
Another crucial element of this thesis is Europe's evolving position on Russia's frozen sovereign assets—an estimated $300 billion immobilized following the 2022 invasion. Brussels is exploring a framework where new loans to Kyiv would be backed by these assets, with repayment contingent on Russia paying reparations. Plur daddy argues this outcome "will never happen,” classifying the mechanism as a de facto seizure. Such an act, he contends, would "massively bolster the raison d’être for crypto,” highlighting its role as a secure store of value immune to state seizure.
The market context supports the store-of-value aspect of this argument. Gold has recently reached new record highs, with several banks forecasting prices between $3,700 and $4,000 in the coming quarters, assuming sustained central bank buying. This could potentially climb even higher if private investors accelerate their diversification away from US dollar assets amidst policy and geopolitical uncertainties. Plur daddy added, “It makes sense that BTC start moving [when] gold’s momentum slows down,” suggesting a potential rotation into Bitcoin once gold's upward trajectory stabilizes.
The thesis has garnered swift endorsements from well-known traders. Ansem (blknoiz06) agreed, stating, “Agree, I am trying to time this, I think < 6 months & > 90k,” indicating a potential Q1 2026 window for a significant Bitcoin rally. Macro strategist Alex Krüger praised it as a “great post,” and Forward Guidance podcast host Felix Jauvin echoed, “So very well said. Good to see you man.” These endorsements underscore the resonance of plur daddy's analysis within the trading community.
The policy backdrop he outlines is further solidified by recent events, including the confirmation of Governor Stephen I. Miran to the Fed Board, who immediately dissented at the September FOMC for a larger rate cut and advocates for faster easing. Simultaneously, the administration's unprecedented attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook via a lawsuit has intensified scrutiny on the legal safeguards protecting the Federal Reserve’s independence. These developments, alongside Europe's plans for Russian assets, are seen as concrete indicators of the "once-a-decade" moment plur daddy describes. At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $113,121.
