Former BitMEX CEO and Maelstrom Fund manager Arthur Hayes has put forward a bold prediction: Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $3.4 million by 2028. This figure, while eye-catching, is rooted in a complex tapestry of assumptions concerning future credit growth, strategic debt buying by central banks, and significant policy shifts, particularly within the United States Federal Reserve.
Hayes substantiates his mathematical projection by forecasting an estimated $15.3 trillion in combined credit growth from the Federal Reserve and commercial banks through to 2028. A key component of this model is the assumption that the Fed will acquire 50% of all newly issued Treasury debt, alongside a projected $7.57 trillion increase in commercial bank credit. These pillars form the fundamental economic bedrock upon which his Bitcoin valuation stands.
The Anticipated Federal Reserve Policy Shift
A pivotal element of Hayes’s argument hinges on the assertion that control over the Federal Reserve will become unusually critical in the coming years. He posits that the team associated with former US President Donald Trump, potentially led by a Treasury Secretary like Scott Bessent, intends to fundamentally reshape the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. This transformation would reportedly be achieved through strategic appointments to the Federal Reserve Board and the application of regulatory pressure.
The alleged plan would necessitate securing four seats on the Board of Governors. This bloc of votes would then be instrumental in influencing decisions regarding short-term interest rates, primarily by manipulating the rules governing Interest on Reserve Balances. Hayes identifies current Governors Bowman and Waller, along with the recently confirmed Stephen Miran, as potential allies, thereby suggesting the Trump camp could already command three supportive votes.
Furthermore, Hayes predicts that Governor Lisa Cook could face substantial pressure, potentially including a Department of Justice review related to mortgage fraud claims. He suggests such pressure could lead to her departure by early 2026. Complementing these board-level maneuvers, reports indicate that a future administration might aim to replace several regional Fed presidents around the February 2026 election cycle, further consolidating influence over the central bank's operations and monetary policy. This comprehensive strategy underlines the deep political dimension of Hayes's financial forecast.
Stablecoin Dynamics and Eurodollar Redirection
Beyond domestic monetary policy, Hayes envisions a broader, systemic funding shift stemming from the Eurodollar market and foreign deposits. He estimates that a staggering $10-13 trillion could be deliberately redirected away from offshore dollar deposits. This monumental shift would be spurred by explicit threats from the US to withdraw support during potential crises, thereby incentivizing foreign entities to re-evaluate their dollar holdings.
This substantial sum, combined with other overseas holdings, creates what Hayes terms a "pool" of non-dollar deposits valued at an immense $34 trillion. This vast financial reservoir, he argues, represents a prime target for compliant stablecoin firms. Issuers such as Tether, known for meticulously parking their reserves in US bank deposits and short-term Treasury bills, are expected to absorb a significant portion of this capital reallocation, further integrating stablecoins into the mainstream financial infrastructure.
Hayes extends this vision even further into the realm of retail finance. He speculates that social media wallets could potentially attract an astonishing $21 trillion in retail deposits from the Global South. In this futuristic scenario, widely used applications like WhatsApp might evolve into primary conduits for individuals to hold dollar-pegged stablecoins, effectively circumventing traditional local bank accounts. This transformation would represent a profound shift in global financial access and the operational mechanics of everyday transactions.
The Interplay of Stablecoins and Treasury Demand
Hayes meticulously outlines a compelling new mechanism of demand within the global financial system. He posits that if a substantial number of depositors transition their wealth into stablecoins, and these stablecoins in turn hold US Treasuries and bank deposits as reserves, the demand for short-term US government paper could become significantly less sensitive to price fluctuations. This fundamental change in market dynamics would imbue the Treasury with unprecedented leverage.
By incorporating an estimated $16.74 trillion in European bank deposits, Hayes constructs a total addressable market of approximately $34 trillion for potential stablecoin conversion. In such a scenario, the US Treasury could conceivably offer yields below the prevailing Fed Funds rate and still attract ample buyers for its debt. This unique position would fundamentally weaken the negotiating power of central banks abroad, while simultaneously granting Washington a new, substantial degree of influence over global short-term interest rates. Arthur Hayes’s intricate forecast paints a picture of a dramatically reconfigured global financial landscape, with Bitcoin at its apex.
