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Recent developments in the cryptocurrency market have prompted leading experts to voice concerns regarding Bitcoin's (BTC) current price action, particularly on the weekly chart. With the flagship cryptocurrency trading below the significant $110,000 threshold, there are growing predictions that its value could potentially dip further, challenging the psychological support level of $100,000. This apprehension is largely driven by a specific bearish technical indicator that has emerged.
Bearish Evening Star Pattern Emerges on Weekly Bitcoin Chart
Market expert Tony Severino has highlighted a potentially worrying trend for Bitcoin. According to his analysis shared in an X post, the Bitcoin price appears to be forming an "Evening Star" pattern on the weekly chart. This particular candlestick pattern is widely recognized as a bearish reversal signal, typically indicating that an uptrend is losing momentum and a downtrend may be on the horizon. Severino's concern is amplified by the fact that this pattern is materializing precisely at the Bollinger Band basis line, which stands around $111,600. This occurrence is notable as it coincides with the tightest Bollinger Band squeeze ever recorded in Bitcoin's history, suggesting a period of unusually low volatility that often precedes a significant price movement in either direction.
Severino had previously pointed out that the weekly Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin were at their narrowest in the entire history of BTCUSD price action. This extreme compression signifies a market that has been trading within an exceptionally tight range, indicative of suppressed volatility. His accompanying chart illustrates the current Bollinger Band configuration: the upper band is approximately at $122,000, the basis (middle) line at $111,600, and the lower band at $101,000. The emergence of a bearish Evening Star pattern during such a tightly squeezed Bollinger Band period raises flags for analysts, as it suggests that the eventual breakout, which is often explosive, could be to the downside.
Analysts Confirm Bearish Sentiment and Key Support Levels
The Evening Star pattern fundamentally implies a shift in market control, with bears gaining an upper hand over bulls. This puts the Bitcoin price at a heightened risk of experiencing a further downtrend. Given the extreme tightness of the Bollinger Bands, Severino's caution stems from the possibility that Bitcoin could decline towards its lower Bollinger Band, potentially testing the $101,000 level. This sentiment is echoed by fellow crypto analyst Bob Loukas, who confirmed that bears are indeed in control and suggested that Bitcoin might even drop below the $100,000 mark.
Loukas elaborated that the Bitcoin price is currently positioned to print its Weekly Cycle Low. Despite the prevailing downtrend, he observed that BTC has shown resilience in holding its ground. For a new cycle to commence and confirm a bullish reversal, Loukas believes a rally to $118,000 is necessary. Until such a rally materializes, the bearish forces are expected to maintain their dominance. While his short-term outlook suggests a potential drop below $100,000 during this bearish phase, Loukas remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, forecasting a potential rally to as high as $140,000 in the extended future.
Adding to the chorus of warnings, crypto analyst Ali Martinez emphasized the critical importance for Bitcoin to reclaim the $116,300 level. Failure to do so, according to his analysis based on Pricing Bands, could see the price plummet to as low as $94,334. Martinez had previously identified $107,200 as a crucial support level for Bitcoin. He warned that any sustained drop below this pivotal support would undoubtedly bring the $100,000 psychological barrier, or even the $93,000 mark, into serious consideration as the next potential downside target.
Further technical insights come from Titan of Crypto, who noted that the Bitcoin price has already broken below a significant trendline at the $110,000 level. While he stressed that confirmation of this bearish move is still needed, requiring the lagging span to follow suit, his observation adds weight to the bearish short-term outlook. Interestingly, despite these bearish signals, Titan of Crypto maintains a long-term bullish stance. He does not believe that BTC has reached its cycle top, arguing that the current market sentiment, characterized by fear, has historically never marked the definitive peak of a market cycle.
At the time of this writing, the Bitcoin price is hovering around $109,600, showing a slight uptick over the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The confluence of a bearish Evening Star pattern, historically tight Bollinger Bands, and critical support levels being tested creates a complex and uncertain short-term outlook for Bitcoin. While several analysts highlight the immediate downside risks, the longer-term perspective from some experts still points towards a potential recovery and new highs, contingent on Bitcoin navigating this challenging period successfully and reclaiming key resistance levels.
