Bitcoin's Crucial Juncture: Analyst Pinpoints Key Support for Next Rally

Noted crypto analyst Kevin, known as Kev Capital TA, recently informed his audience that Bitcoin's current price retraction aligns with well-established seasonal and structural patterns. He emphasized that the cryptocurrency's forthcoming significant movement largely depends on its ability to maintain a clearly defined support range. "Hold $107k to $98K," Kevin stated, identifying this zone as the pivotal point for the next phase of the bull cycle. "It's that simple."

Speaking during a live stream on September 25, as BTC dipped to $108,651 amidst rising bearish sentiment, Kevin argued that this pullback should not come as a surprise to experienced traders. He positioned the present market activity within a broader context of caution that began in early August. During that period, he consistently highlighted weekly bearish divergences across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the overall altcoin market (Total2), particularly as these assets approached what he described as long-term, four-plus-year resistance zones.

Understanding the Market Structure and Bearish Signals

Kevin challenged a common market belief, noting, "Everyone thinks these symmetrical triangle patterns after a move higher are continuation patterns, but in reality, in the crypto market, very, very rarely do these break out to the upside." He pointed to a series of smaller impulse highs observed since late 2023, reiterating that despite sharp rallies in certain altcoins, major cryptocurrencies failed to surpass any significant resistance levels.

Confluence on Higher Time Frames

The foundation of Kevin's analysis rests on the confluence of indicators across higher time frames. On Bitcoin's weekly chart, he identified a pattern of rising price highs contrasted with declining momentum. He described these as "simple strength and momentum indicators," which, while not standalone signals, provide crucial context indicating that momentum "has been dwindling for a very long time."

Furthermore, Kevin highlighted that Total2, representing the total altcoin market capitalization, registered "a triple top on the weekly" just below the critical $1.71–$1.74 trillion range, which he labeled "the all-be-all resistance level." Concurrently, weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators were observed rolling over. In his view, this indicates that momentum is resetting precisely as expected during periods of historically thin liquidity, typical of the late-summer months. He reinforced this by stating, "Q3 is never a good quarter for crypto. August, September are terrible months. They always are."

USDT Dominance: The Ultimate Market Compass

Against this analytical backdrop, Kevin asserted that USDT dominance remains the most reliable inter-market indicator. "USDT dominance is the greatest chart ever. There is no better chart," he declared. He elaborated on a macro descending triangle pattern in USDT.D, characterized by flat-bottom support near 3.9–3.7% and recurrent rallies toward a falling trendline. This pattern, he explained, has accurately mapped crypto cycle lows and highs over the past two years.

He observed that each approach to the flat bottom support has historically formed a W- or inverse head-and-shoulders-style base in USDT.D, coinciding with Bitcoin distributing near its local peaks. Conversely, each rejection at the downtrend has aligned with significant crypto market inflections. "You literally don't need any chart in all of crypto," Kevin argued. "All you need is Bitcoin and USDT dominance and you would have played this cycle absolutely perfectly."

Tactical Levels and Liquidity Dynamics

From a tactical standpoint, Kevin identified several key Bitcoin liquidity points. He flagged a three-month BTC liquidity "heat map" shelf positioned near $106.8K and the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), often regarded as the bull-market support band, situated around $109.2K, as natural price magnets. The lower weekly Bollinger Band, he added, hovered near $101K.

Kevin strongly emphasized that for the cycle to remain intact, he does not wish to see "Bitcoin lose 106.8K." However, he acknowledged that a temporary wick into this area to "swipe the liquidity" would be consistent with previous market resets. He ultimately framed $98K as the absolute line that should not be decisively broken. "There's a whole lot of support in that range," he noted, expressing confidence that, "I'd be pretty shocked if Bitcoin wasn't able to bounce in there somewhere."

Macro-Economic Catalysts and Q4 Seasonality

Kevin connected structural market signals with a clear macro checklist, positing that lasting cycle tops and bottoms typically align with fundamental economic catalysts, rather than being solely driven by chart patterns. He cited the 2021 inflation surge and the onset of the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle as the primary drivers of that cycle's 55–60% drawdown. Similarly, the 2017 CME Bitcoin futures launch acted as a blow-off top catalyst, and the FTX collapse in 2022 marked the final capitulation amid weekly bullish divergence.

"There's always a macro-related reason that correlates with the charts," he explained. In contrast, he currently perceives no such cycle-ending macro trigger. Inflation gauges have been "very choppy" but generally contained, and the Fed is widely anticipated to ease monetary policy towards year-end, provided the labor market softens. Moreover, historical data indicates that "seasonality favors Q4."

He underscored the immediate economic calendar—with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and labor data expected in the first half of October—as decisive factors for risk appetite. "Sometime in mid-October… we'll start to have an idea of where this market is really going to go," he predicted. "If we get to mid-October and Bitcoin's holding key support… and we get good macroeconomic data, we get another rate cut… the probabilities favor that Bitcoin will [go higher]—and then you're in Q4."

Impending Volatility and Strategic Outlook

Volatility positioning, Kevin added, suggests a sharp directional move once the current market reset is complete. Analyzing the weekly Bollinger Band Width, he noted that BTC has printed record-low readings three times this cycle, each occurring in Q3. Each of these episodes began with an initial downside break of 18–29% before subsequently surging to fresh highs.

"There is a massive move coming for Bitcoin soon. It has not happened yet," he affirmed, highlighting that spot volumes have been declining since November while the Bollinger Bands have tightened to historic extremes. While a test of the lower weekly band near $101K "is possible," it is not, in his view, a prerequisite. The crucial aspect is that the broader $107K–$98K corridor must serve as a dependable springboard for the next upward movement.

Kevin was equally clear about the conditions for invalidation and upside triggers. He designated $125K as "a major top for now," stating that the market requires weekly and monthly closes above this level to confirm trend continuation. Regarding Bitcoin dominance, he pointed to 59.0% and 60.28% as near-term resistance levels. If these are reclaimed, it could ignite a Bitcoin-led market phase; otherwise, he anticipates leadership to rotate back to altcoins once Bitcoin establishes a base and USDT dominance prints a lower high. He advised, "Stop looking at the altcoins" until these inter-market signals align, stressing the importance of patience, effective risk management, and taking profits into resistance.

His overall message balances restraint with opportunism. "Hold $107k to 98K," he reiterated. "Go into October. Get through the first couple of weeks of macroeconomic data… Bitcoin will inevitably find a low on the back of that data and then eventually go higher." However, he issued a warning: if benign macro data emerges yet "Bitcoin is still deteriorating," traders should be prepared to re-evaluate the cycle thesis. Until then, Kevin's counsel remains straightforward and pragmatic: respect seasonal patterns, diligently track inter-market indicators, and allow higher-time-frame levels to guide decisions. "Being right is the best pat on the back you can get," he concluded. "Not just saying things that get you a lot of clicks."

At press time, BTC was trading at $109,607.