Bitcoin's Critical Juncture: Blowoff Rally or Cycle Top?

Bitcoin's journey through its four-year market cycle is nearing a pivotal moment, presenting two distinct possibilities: an imminent euphoric “blowoff” rally to unprecedented highs, or the market having already established its peak at the 33-month mark. This compelling dilemma comes from veteran cycle analyst Bob Loukas, who shared his insights in a video on September 24, 2025. Loukas, while leaning “heavily” towards a powerful Q4 upside into a cycle high, meticulously outlined the critical indicators that could confirm a pre-existing market top. His analysis offers a crucial perspective for investors navigating the volatile cryptocurrency landscape.

Approaching Bitcoin's Decisive Inflection Point

Loukas characterizes the current market as the advanced stages of Bitcoin's typical rising phase, highlighting a “pretty consistent uptrend” since the bear-market lows. This ascent has been punctuated by significant periods of “outperformance,” which, according to his model, have historically contributed the lion’s share of gains within any given cycle. The analyst points to the multi-month trading range Bitcoin has occupied, describing it as “one big foundation, one big solid block.” This foundation, he explains, has been constructed amidst a delicate balance: consistent selling pressure from long-term holders, often referred to as whales, being offset by robust and sustained demand from institutional investors. This dynamic interplay has effectively anchored the price within its current boundaries.

The core of Loukas's bullish sentiment rests on a conspicuous absence: the traditional “blowoff” mania phase that typically precedes a cycle peak. He emphasizes that previous Bitcoin cycles have invariably culminated in a distinct three-month period of “euphoric buying,” leading to rapid and significant price appreciation, ultimately forging the cycle's high. With Bitcoin now around its 34th month since the last four-year cycle low, and with seasonal trends historically favoring an upward trajectory in the final quarter, Loukas believes all the necessary conditions are aligning for this late-stage surge. He asserts, “We really should be looking for a blowoff phase that is imminent, that is just about to begin in my opinion… We are at the most opportune time in the four-year cycle for such a move.”

The Case for an Already-Reached Peak

Despite his bullish inclination, Loukas provides a balanced perspective by acknowledging the “credible” bearish scenario. He notes that the recent August high occurred at month 33 of the cycle, a timing band that “pretty closely” mirrors previous cycle structures. From a purely structural standpoint, the market's performance since the bear-market low—a substantial “very healthy 700% rise”—could, under a framework of diminishing returns, be considered a complete cycle in itself. He also highlights Bitcoin's relative underperformance compared to equities and the significant rally observed in gold. Loukas estimates an “outside chance” of 10% to 20% that the cycle has already peaked at month 33. However, he cautions against prematurely de-risking positions at this precise moment, especially “on the eve of a possible move up.”

Navigating a Potential Blowoff Rally

Should the anticipated blowoff materialise, Loukas envisions it adhering to the historical pattern: a series of late-cycle weekly advances that compound rapidly over an estimated period of eight to fifteen weeks. While he refrains from committing to a definitive price target, he illustrates the potential magnitude by referencing prior doubling moves. For instance, a doubling from the lows of the past few months, which he approximates around $105,000, could propel Bitcoin to approximately $210,000. He suggests that reaching “the $200,000 level by December, although it sounds extremely optimistic… there is a pretty clear path to that possibility.” Crucially, Loukas stresses that investment decisions should be primarily guided by market sentiment and signs of overextension, rather than adhering rigidly to specific round-number targets, advising investors to “be a little flexible… looking at how stretched this market can get.”

Effective risk management remains paramount in such volatile conditions. Loukas identifies key guardrails for investors. The 10-month moving average, currently hovering “around about the $100,000 level,” serves as a critical late-cycle support. A monthly close below this threshold would, in his view, constitute “a major warning sign at this point.” Furthermore, he highlights the prior “big weekly cycle decline down at $75,000” as a level that Bitcoin “shouldn’t be anywhere near.” A breach of this lower boundary, he implies, would be consistent with the onset of a bear market.

Confirmation Signals and Alternative Paths

For confirmation of an upside continuation, Loukas seeks a definitive move above recent all-time highs. Specifically, he wants to see “a move back above the $120,000 level.” If Bitcoin achieves new all-time highs, this new level would then “certainly would become my floor.” Conversely, a subsequent reversal and decline “back below the $105,000 level” after establishing a new high would “indicate a change in trend and a likely top.”

Loukas also contemplates a third scenario: an extended cycle that might stretch into early 2026, potentially featuring a shorter-than-usual bear market. In this less traditional path, he suggests that a classic blowoff might not occur. Instead, Bitcoin could experience a more “controlled rise” towards the $140,000–$160,000 range, followed by a period of consolidation before attempting a final upward push. Under this framework, he would adopt a flexible, “week by week and month by month” approach, allowing Bitcoin to continue its extension into Q1 of 2026 and beyond, patiently awaiting unmistakable signs of euphoric market conditions before considering distribution.

While acknowledging that market participants widely anticipate Q4 seasonality and four-year cycle dynamics, Loukas advises against overcomplicating the prevailing consensus. He notes that “Historically… it ends up still unfolding in a similar way.” His base case firmly remains that the market is “on the cusp of a significant start to a final leg into the bull market high,” with the ultimate peak most likely occurring within the 35–37-month window from the prior cycle low. If the market fails to deliver a sustained breakout and instead breaches his predefined risk levels, Loukas indicates he would interpret this as confirmation that the cycle indeed topped at month 33, necessitating a corresponding strategic pivot.

In conclusion, Loukas emphasizes a long-term perspective: “The point… is we’re not trying to time an hourly or a daily or a weekly move. We’re in this [on] a four-year-cycle time frame.” His strategy is straightforward: “Stay humble… let the price action unfold… and try and capitalize on what I think will be the last move of this four-year cycle.” At the time of analysis, BTC traded at $111,740.