Bitcoin recently experienced a significant "mass liquidation event," leading to a swift selloff that pushed its price as low as $111,761 after failing to overcome resistance in the mid-$117,000s. Ostium Research, in its latest weekly note published on September 22, 2025, describes this downturn as part of a broader "window of weakness" anticipated to extend into early October. Despite this recent pressure, the research firm emphasizes that Bitcoin's higher-timeframe uptrend remains intact, provided key weekly support levels manage to hold firm. The report offers a comprehensive technical map and outlines potential event calendars that could dictate Bitcoin's price trajectory over the upcoming sessions, highlighting a pivotal period for the leading cryptocurrency.
The Looming Threat: A Potential $99,000 Crash
Ostium's analysis of the weekly chart reveals that Bitcoin recently consolidated around its August open before experiencing a significant wick into "key resistance... at $117.5k," followed by a close marginally below the open. Subsequently, early-week price action saw the price fall beneath reclaimed support into the $111,000 handle. Analysts specifically pointed out that "over $1.6bn in longs liquidated so far today," underscoring the intense selling pressure that gripped the market.
The primary bearish risk, according to Ostium, is anchored in two critical structural inflection zones. A definitive "acceptance below $107k on a weekly close would open up more downside into $99k," indicating a potentially severe correction. Conversely, for any bullish resurgence, the weekly high at $115.3k would need to be revisited, serving as a crucial hurdle for upward momentum.
Navigating the Daily Battlegrounds
On the daily timeframe, the August open at $115.7k is identified as a critical pivot point. For bullish momentum to reassert itself, the market must successfully reclaim this level and establish it as robust support. The immediate battleground for traders lies around the prior all-time high at $112,000. A successful "reclaim of $112k as support" would significantly tilt probabilities toward the formation of a higher low, potentially forcing short positions to cover and propelling the price back towards the $115.7k resistance.
However, Ostium's base case anticipates a period of "chop between $112k-$115k" before a potential "second push lower below today’s low." This anticipated price action will be instrumental in determining the market's immediate future: whether it will undercut the June swing low at $107k, leading to further downside, or establish a bottom sooner, setting the stage for a recovery.
Tactical Trading Insights from Ostium
Ostium Labs provides unusually clear tactical triggers for both long and short positions, offering a detailed blueprint for traders. For those considering a long entry, a "sweep of today’s low early this week and then a reclaim of $112k as support" is identified as a strong opportunity, with the objective of riding momentum back towards the weekly high. This strategy capitalizes on potential liquidity grabs below recent lows.
On the short side, Ostium outlines what it calls "a really nice short setup." This involves a "sharp v-reversal... back above the weekly high... before... rejecting and breaking back below $115.3k." Such a scenario would then target "often $112k and lower," effectively describing a "squeeze-then-fade" path designed to catch both late longs who chase the initial reversal and late shorts who are trapped by the squeeze before the subsequent rejection.
Broader Market Influences and Outlook
Beyond direct price analysis, the Ostium report also delves into broader market dynamics, including positioning and derivatives breadth. Snapshots of the 3-month annualized basis, Bitcoin versus altcoin open interest, and one-week/one-month liquidation maps are presented to underscore how quickly pockets of liquidity can transform into price magnets, particularly during periods of thin market conditions and heightened volatility.
This comprehensive market context informs Ostium's near-term expectation that "the next leg lower or second liquidation event this week [could] be a high probability low." This event, if it materializes, would likely be followed by a retest of $115.3k. This retest will serve as a crucial test for the market, offering a verdict on whether the current price action is merely a precursor to another down-leg or a cunning bear-trap reversal setting up a rally into the quarter-end.
Concluding Probabilities and October Hopes
Ostium's house view remains probabilistic rather than dogmatic, acknowledging the inherent uncertainties and dual possibilities in the market. Should the $107,000 level fail to hold on a weekly close, the "weakness window could extend into $99,000," signaling a deeper correction than currently anticipated.
Conversely, if $107,000 holds firm, and especially if the market can successfully "flip $115.7k into support," the "higher-low narrative stays alive," suggesting a more constructive outlook. Drawing an analogy to Ethereum, Ostium notes that "nothing about this higher timeframe structure or momentum is currently giga-bearish." This implies that Bitcoin's current structural integrity should be similarly judged by its reaction around the critical $111.7k–$112k range in the coming week.
Ultimately, regardless of whether today's price flush proves to be a prelude to further capitulation or merely a trap before new highs, Ostium's long-term conviction remains clear: "we move much higher from early October," contingent upon those critical weekly thresholds not being decisively broken to the downside. At the time of the report, BTC traded at $113,002, standing at a pivotal crossroads that will likely define its near-term future.
